[LS]

No, there are all sorts of scenarios---I'm just providing those that most "observers" think will unfold, namely that Mitt is going to win IA and NH pretty easily, probably win MI, and that Rudy has a commanding lead in FL and most of the big-delegate "Super Tuesday" states (NY, CT, PA, NJ, and CA). It's like the electoral college where you have to find a way to reach, what? 271? The only difference is that delegates are (in most states) proportional, meaning Fred can "lose" a state and still get some delegates---but that goes for the other guys, too.

At some point, someone has to present any scenario that has Fred winning a big bunch of delegates without CA, FL, CT, NJ, PA, IA, and NH. I don't see where they come from---but even if he wins, say, NC, GA, AL, AZ, Rudy will still be winning some and adding to those huge delegate counts he already has. There is one bonus for Fred if he wins a bunch of "red" states vs. CT and NY and CA, which is the "super delegates" are extra delegates awarded to states that went Republican in the last presidential election.

[Huck]

Thanks. Good info. I wonder if Michael Barone has written on this subject yet. He’s usually the guru of this sort of thing.

[LexBaird]

No, there are all sorts of scenarios---I'm just providing those that most "observers" think will unfold, namely that Mitt is going to win IA and NH pretty easily, probably win MI, and that Rudy has a commanding lead in FL and most of the big-delegate "Super Tuesday" states (NY, CT, PA, NJ, and CA).

PA is not a Feb 5 state. It votes on Apr. 22.

It's like the electoral college where you have to find a way to reach, what? 271?

The magic number is 1230. Wiki has a pretty good breakdown.