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because he'll have the very large delegate states of NY, CA, CT, NJ, PA, and FL, where Fred has no chance

CA isn't a winner-take-all state this time around. While Rudy polls well here, he won't take the whole pie. With 173 delegates, it is the big fish of super Tuesday. I also note you call CT (30), NJ (52), and PA (in April with 74) as telling states. There are several states with as many or more delegates than those. How do you see NV (34), AL (48), AK (29), AR (34), CO (46), GA (72), IL (70), etc.

It isn't such a lock for Guiliani on Feb. 5 as conventional wisdom would have it.

I didn't say, or imply, CA was winner take all. Many states aren't. Rudy, BTW, was polling ahead in NV last time I looked. AZ will go McCain. GA and AL will go Thompson. IL will go Rudy, easily. Don't know about AK and CO.

Also, are you sure you aren't counting in "super delegates?" I'm not certain on this, but my impression was that they were awarded differently than the regular delegates---later? Dunno. Otherwise, there is no way that PA has fewer delegates than AL or AK.

I'd have to check out the superdelegate award process to know.