Posted on 10/28/2007 1:39:10 PM PDT by freespirited
Mark Penn, a senior strategist and pollster for Hillary Clinton’s Presidential Campaign, made news recently by suggesting that Clinton could win up to 24% of the votes from Republican women in Election 2008.
Recent Rasmussen Reports polling data from match-ups against top Republican candidates offers some support for that claim—it shows Clinton attracting an average of 18% support from Republican women.
However, there is another side to the gender gap story. The same surveys show that while Clinton is attracting 18% of Republican women, she is losing an average of 20% of Democratic men to the Republicans.
These results come from recent national telephone surveys matching Clinton against Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain, and Mitt Romney. Two polls matching Clinton against each Republican candidate were included to compile these averages.
In any individual survey, there are a relatively small number of Republican women or Democratic men in a sample (roughly 125 to 160 of each for the surveys used in this comparison). Small sample sizes mean higher margins of error and more volatility. So, it is sometimes useful to aggregate the data to get a reliable sense of the data.
In the eight match-up polls included for this analysis, Clinton’s best performance showed her picking up 25% of Republican women. Her weakest performance was just 10% of Republican women. Those points are roughly equidistant from the average result of 18%.
As for Democratic men, Clinton’s best performance in the surveys was to lose just 15% of support from Democratic men. Her worst was to lose 29%. Five of the eight match-ups produced results within four points of the average. One result was below that range and two were above.
On five of the eight match-ups, Clinton lost a larger percentage of votes from Democratic men than she gained from Republican women. The opposite was true for the other three match-ups.
Clinton has consistently benefitted from an overall gender gap in Election 2008 polling. She does extraordinarily well among women in national polling for the Democratic Primary, New Hampshire, Iowa, and other states.
This week, Rasmussen Reports released state polling data that bears out the same gender gap trends in Ohio, Michigan, and North Carolina.
Another Rasmussen Reports survey shows that most Americans say they are willing to vote for a woman for President. However, they are less sure about their peers. This is especially true among senior citizens.
The surveys used for this analysis were conducted on September 24-25 (Clinton v McCain and Romney), October 8-9 (Clinton v Giuliani and Thompson), October 10-11 (Clinton v McCain and Romney), and October 22-23 (Clinton v Giuliani and Thompson).
Would that be the same GOP whose brand has supposedly sustained great damage?
Consider the source of these suggestions.
What kind of demented Republican woman would vote for Clinton?!
Not.Buying.It.
Susan Collins-types.
If she won them, they were not republicans!
Not buying what? That Dem men won’t vote for her in greater numbers hen Rep women would?
That would make the Dims the winners right? They would have purged themselves of more white men and gathered in yet more women. Thus they would have the highest percentage of the more important voters, women and people of color.
Any “republican women” who vote for Hilary should be exiled.
The old woman has not won GOP woman unless they are a liberal. I could believe this based on some of the posts I see.
But...she has not won a conservative woman and NEVER could.
Republican Senators’ wives and staffers?
Pure BS...There should be a disclaimer after every Dem Poll that reads: “polls massaged to fit the media’s agenda which is to pimp Hillary”...Pure BS!
There are plenty of Democrat women that can’t stomach her.
This poll is total garbage. There is no such thing as democratic men.
Women are going to vote for the Hildebeeste just because she’s a woman ... this one will NOT!!!!
What a bunch of crap.
Listen up women. We are being called “stupid.”
That was my question. I have never heard one of the ladies I know ever say anything good about der Hildabeast...even the demoncrat ones. Then again, I don’t get out much. I would really think the “queen bee syndrome” would apply.
What a load.
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