Posted on 10/30/2007 11:00:24 AM PDT by Spiff
This is a chart I put together which tracks presidential preference polls in South Carolina since 12/23/06:
Poll numbers were obtained from RealClearPolitics' useful aggregation of poll results. Also included is the Voter/Consumer Research poll that was done on 10/02. This chart uses as 4-period moving average.
Here's one that I did that depicts only American Research Group's polling results:
He is also within the margin of error with Fred in the Rasmussen (most accurate according to many here) in the national poll as of today.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history
Their results are radically different from the other polling firms, and they have a very, very poor record of accuracy in predicting actual election results.
The classic rule on the early primaries is driving Romney:
There are three tickets out of Iowa.
There are two tickets out of New Hampshire
Romney will almost certainly be number one or two in NH. If he follows that with a win in the South, as in Carolina, he will become a juggernaut.
He's not perfect, but not as identifiably liberal as Rudy. He has business and executive success behind him, and he is very good on his feet with a good speaking style and a command of the issues.
Also, of all the candidates--on both sides--he's the best looking, someone you wouldn't mind having in your living room for the next four years.
ARG is radically different. But the fact is that Rudy leads in the RCP composite of most of the state polls; and Romney leads in the couple that Rudy doesn’t.
He's also in the same place he was in July in the same poll, 14%.
Thats an awful lot of money to spend over 3 1/2 months without any movement at all in this national poll.
Maybe he's not campaigning hard enough. Are you sure he has the "fire in the belly"?
I've added it to my tracking chart:
Their results are radically different from the other polling firms, and they have a very, very poor record of accuracy in predicting actual election results.
true, but you can depend on them to provide the results they are paid to provide. Want a poll, buy a poll.
“Romney will almost certainly be number one or two in NH. If he follows that with a win in the South, as in Carolina, he will become a juggernaut.”
And I will become a third party voter...
2008 Republican Presidential Nominee
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI Rudy Giuliani to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 39.8 40.0 40.0 120596 -1.3
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY Mitt Romney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 26.4 27.0 27.0 99289 0
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 9.7 9.9 9.9 90246 -0.1
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN John McCain to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 6.9 7.2 7.0 149782 0
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL Ron Paul to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 6.8 7.0 7.0 70956 +0.4
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE Mike Huckabee to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 6.4 6.7 6.5 59497 -0.3
Romney blows away the competition in early states like NH and Iowa on Intrade. I wish they would start a line on SC.
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY Mitt Romney to Win M 66.0 70.3 68.3 239 0
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F) Fred Thompson to Win M 6.0 9.6 7.5 107 0
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI Rudy Giuliani to Win M 2.0 4.0 2.0 231 0
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE Mike Huckabee to Win M 15.0 19.8 19.8 140 +2.4
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN John McCain to Win M 1.5 3.9 2.7 13 0
i
Maybe I'll do a chart just tracking Intrade's national poll numbers to see how that looks.
This guy is a phony as John Edwards. I can’t believe people in the Republican party are being fooled by him.
Romney: ‘Can you hear me now?’
bump
He has a weird advantage of being toward the middle, yet in the past few weeks I believe that his state polls are getting closer, and if people in the GOP really want electability he seems the one that polls best consistently against the Beast.
Since I am not an electoral or delegate wonk, I could be way off, but look for him to either sink or swim in the next few months. This is not what I want, it is just what I think might happen.
ARG is a bad outfit when they don't tell JohnnyZ what he wants to hear.
Truth is, Fred's been sliding and Romney's been climbing in South Carolina. You may dispute the numbers, but the trends are clear.
Southerner Fred must be mortified to be have to work his tail off to beat a Mormon in South Carolina.
This is real success born of real effort. Nothing phony about it. You might at least acknowledge Romney's skill, effort, and work-ethic even if you have no intention of supporting him. At least have that courtesy and good grace.
If it does nothing more than spur Fred to get off his tired backside and show a little enthusiasm it will be worth it.
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