CEPEC Issues “Earthquake Advisory” For Bay Area Counties in Response to Magnitude 5.6 Earthquake

California Governor's Office of Emergency Services ^ | October 31, 2007 | California Earthquake Prediction Advisory Council

[onedoug]

Interesting chart. How come Parkfield’s so blue?

[BenLurkin]

This is a chart of aftershock threats and addresses only those areas which have had recent earthquakes - but the recent quiet in Parkfield might really mean that it is due for a large shaker sans foreshock.

[janetjanet998]

how often so they issue these after a quake?

[Wacka]

I think they said after any greater than 5.0. We had a 3.7 aftershock at 4 PM today.

[Axenolith]

If this is a foreshock.. no way of knowing for sure tho...

One things for sure though, it didn't releive any strain on those systems, it added to it...

[Cementjungle]

I think the whole Pacific plate is about to spin around about 180 degrees. That’ll make California and Japan swap places.

[Fabozz]

"I'm probably missing something but how can the probability be significantly increased for above the normal level of a damaging quake while at the same time have an overall low likelihood?"

If you buy one lottery ticket, your odds of winning are low. If you buy a hundred lottery tickets, your odds of winning have gone up a hundredfold—a significant increase—but they're still low.

[ThePythonicCow]

What do Art Bell ...

Last night on Coast to Coast AM, Jim Berkland predicted (talking to George Noory, if I recall correctly - not sure) that around the full and new moons for the next couple of months, when tides would be especially high, there was a serious risk of major earthquake activity in the San Francisco area. From The coasttocoastam.com web site for Oct 30, 2007:

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Quake Update

Appearing briefly at the start of the show, geologist Jim Berkland commented on the San Jose quake, which had occurred earlier in the evening. He'd predicted seismic activity in the Bay Area during this time.

[ThePythonicCow]

Ah - no problem. My house is about 1/4 mile from the Hayward fault. If it happens - it happens.

I'd expect to see much more serve problems with liquifaction and severe shaking due to the soft soil underlying much of Fremont, Hayward and Oakland.

This has a good chance of a being the worst earthquake you've ever felt, with a far greater damage and loss of life than the others you've felt.

See further Earthquake San Jose, CA - FR Post #104

On the other hand, the biggest quake in recent times along this fault was in the Hayward area, and perhaps the greatest slip deficit (accumulated stresses) is a bit north now, in the Oakland/Berkeley area. See further The accumulation of interseismic strain along the Hayward fault.

Here's an estimate of the shaking in the 1868 quake, from New ShakeMaps for the 1868 Hayward Earthquake:

ShakeMap Legend

Be grateful you were not along the low lands of the East Bay between Fremont and Hayward in 1868.

[Uncle Ike]

” That’ll make California and Japan swap places. “

Naaah... Asia would never go for that trade unless we threw in Illinois and Connecticut — and maybe a couple of draft choices....