CEPEC Issues “Earthquake Advisory” For Bay Area Counties in Response to Magnitude 5.6 Earthquake

California Governor's Office of Emergency Services ^ | October 31, 2007 | California Earthquake Prediction Advisory Council

[Strategerist]

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

In response to Tuesday evening’s magnitude-5.6 earthquake near the junction of the Calaveras and Hayward faults, the following statement was issued by the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, a panel of scientists chaired by the State Geologist that advises the Director of the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (OES) on the scientific validity of earthquake forecasts and seismic activity in areas where damaging earthquakes have occurred in the past.

“A magnitude 5.6 earthquake occurred at 8:05 Tuesday evening (30 October 2007). The earthquake occurred near the junction of the Calaveras and Hayward faults in the southern San Francisco Bay Area. Both of these faults are known active faults capable of producing large, damaging earthquakes.

“CEPEC believes that this evening’s earthquake has significantly increased the probability above the normal level for a damaging earthquake along the Calaveras and/or Hayward faults within the next several days. However, the overall likelihood of such an event is still low. Scientists will be continuing to monitor the situation and advise OES of any changes.

In response to the CEPEC evaluation of this earthquake, OES recommends that residents of the San Francisco Bay region review their family emergency plans, check their emergency supplies, identify the “safe” and “potential danger” spots in each room, remove breakables from locations from which they can fall and cause injury, and stay tuned to the radio or television for further information. OES also recommends that government agencies and businesses review their plans. The “advisory” applies to the following counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Monterey, San Benito, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Solano and Sonoma.

Additional information on earthquake preparedness is available on the OES Home Page at www.oes.ca.gov.

Contacts: John Parish, CGS, 916-445-1923 Greg Renick, OES, 562-577-8503

[Strategerist]

This is an official advisory body of legitimate scientists. There is a heightened risk of a far more serious quake on either Calaveras or Hayward for the next few days, if this is a foreshock.

[webheart]

There may be a slightly somewhat greater chance that there might possibly be something resembling what could be referred to an earthquake, possibly within the next few days, at least that is what they are thinking might be the case, so they have to say something.

[PAR35]

So are the school buses being used for an evacuation, or is San Francisco following in the footsteps of New Orleans?

[NormsRevenge]

If this is a foreshock.. no way of knowing for sure tho..
but
We’re way overdue as is for the Next “Big One”..

If nothing else , this makes some folks think preparedness in case of such an event occurring in their lifetime.. and that’s a good thing. Those able-minded&bodied who would rely on gubamint and agencies and neighbors to rescue&bail them out ought think twice.

[sourcery]

Link to article broken.

[Man50D]

CEPEC believes that this evening’s earthquake has significantly increased the probability above the normal level for a damaging earthquake along the Calaveras and/or Hayward faults within the next several days. However, the overall likelihood of such an event is still low.

I'm probably missing something but how can the probability be significantly increased for above the normal level of a damaging quake while at the same time have an overall low likelihood?

[null and void]

Sooooo, what do Art Bell and Jim Berkland have to say???

[Mark]

Covering all of the bases.

[Ramius]

Because the basic probability of a large quake at a moment in time is very, very low. Several times greater risk can still be a low probability.

Its not as goofy as it sounds.

:-)

[Brilliant]

For all of you in San Fran:

Repent!!! The end is near!

[billorites]

We’re way overdue as is for the Next “Big One”.

[editor-surveyor]

There is a heightened probability of the occurance of an improbable siesmic event, although less than somewhat however.

We are pleased to be able to offer this clarification due to the enhancement of the functions of the Office of Moderately Educated Guesses.

[Rushmore Rocks]

FYI

[expatpat]

how can the probability be significantly increased for above the normal level of a damaging quake while at the same time have an overall low likelihood?

The normal probability level is even lower.

[taxesareforever]

I'm probably missing something but how can the probability be significantly increased for above the normal level of a damaging quake while at the same time have an overall low likelihood?

You mean like, "Hillary is the most highly rated democratic presidental candidate but she is a loser"?

[mefistofelerevised]

Now that’s a language I understand!

[notpoliticallycorewrecked]

San Fransisco area : Just remember when the big quake does hit, you despised the boy scouts and the military, so do not expect them to give you assistance.

[BenLurkin]

[o_zarkman44]

In other words, be prepared.
Stock up on water and non perishable food. Refill prescriptions. Have a survival kit in the car in case of being caught away from home. Make sure personal protection measures are available and in place.

Good sense measures. don’t expect government to come help when it’s convenient for you.

[fremont_steve]

Ah - no problem. My house is about 1/4 mile from the Hayward fault. If it happens - it happens.

Been there/done that. I’ve lived through the 70 Sylmar quake and Loma Preitta.

Interestingly (and luckily) - the average death tool in CA for the three big quakes that have happened in my life time in populated areas is around 65. In a city of 10 million people - not bad odds.