[Man50D]

CEPEC believes that this evening’s earthquake has significantly increased the probability above the normal level for a damaging earthquake along the Calaveras and/or Hayward faults within the next several days. However, the overall likelihood of such an event is still low.

I'm probably missing something but how can the probability be significantly increased for above the normal level of a damaging quake while at the same time have an overall low likelihood?

[Mark]

Covering all of the bases.

[Ramius]

Because the basic probability of a large quake at a moment in time is very, very low. Several times greater risk can still be a low probability.

Its not as goofy as it sounds.

:-)

[expatpat]

how can the probability be significantly increased for above the normal level of a damaging quake while at the same time have an overall low likelihood?

The normal probability level is even lower.

[taxesareforever]

I'm probably missing something but how can the probability be significantly increased for above the normal level of a damaging quake while at the same time have an overall low likelihood?

You mean like, "Hillary is the most highly rated democratic presidental candidate but she is a loser"?

[Fabozz]

"I'm probably missing something but how can the probability be significantly increased for above the normal level of a damaging quake while at the same time have an overall low likelihood?"

If you buy one lottery ticket, your odds of winning are low. If you buy a hundred lottery tickets, your odds of winning have gone up a hundredfold—a significant increase—but they're still low.