While I agree that Hillary likely has the Democratic nomination sewed up, at the debate she revealed just how weak a candidate she will be when the race starts in earnest. It is one thing to pander to her base supporters and use George Bush as the scapegoat for everything seen wrong in America, but Bush is not running for President in 2008. Hillary will have to give more than talking points if she is to overcome her generally negative rating with mainstream voters. She also has a problem in straddling the wide gulf between the radical left who are now her party’s base and far more centrist or right leaning voters like the Reagan Democrats. Clearly she has not done this nor likely could anyone given how far left her party has turned.
She also has a problem in straddling the wide gulf between the radical left who are now her party’s base and far more centrist or right leaning voters like the Reagan Democrats. Clearly she has not done this nor likely could anyone given how far left her party has turned. One wonders how many of the "Reagan Democrats" are _left_ any more, a generation later.
I would guess that after the Republican sweep of 1994, a good portion of them decided to cross the line and call themselves Republicans, and those that did not drifted back to their original Democratic ideology.
The problem _this_ election will be "Hillary's secret women". That is to say, independent and, YES, _Republican_ women who would ordinarily vote for the Republican candidate but THIS TIME will vote for Hillary, because she's a woman and it's finally a woman's time to win.
They may not tell you that, but close the voting booth curtain, and....?
I predict Hillary will pick up 8-15% of the votes of "registered Republican" women.
Old rules ain't gonna apply in this election. It's different this time. Not sure how to fight that.
- John