[codercpc]

My point was that regardless of the numbers, every single poll shows that Fred has gone down in the past month (to his pre announcement numbers or worse), and that others, in this case Huckabee and Romney are the beneficiaries. Even your Rasmussen poll shows the exact same trend. Oct 1st Fred was at 25% today he is at 17%.
That is an 8% drop, and Huckabee picked up 6% with Mitt at 2%.

Rudy and Fred are close, but it was the trend I was looking at not necessarily the numbers.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

And if you take a average of all the polls, Rudy leads by 13.2%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html#polls

[Brices Crossroads]

“My point was that regardless of the numbers, every single poll shows that Fred has gone down in the past month (to his pre announcement numbers or worse), and that others, in this case Huckabee and Romney are the beneficiaries.”

Your analysis is flawed. In response to the pounding Fred has taken from the MSM and elitist New York crowd, his numbers have eroded temporarily, as people who are paying attention (which is still a minority) look around. But the erosion on this poll is within the MOE. Huckabee, a complete unknown with more baggage than a wagon train, has gotten a bump, which will not last. But the fact remains that Fred is in second place. He IS the conservative alternative to Giuliani, whether you care to see it or not.

Rudy has not benefited at all, nor has Romney. Rudy’s ceiling is 25%. The battle is over who the conservative challenger to Giuliani will be. Fred is winning that one and, as the others fade closer to election day, Fred not Rudy will be the beneficiary. He is a conservative that is acceptable to all wings of the GOP, which is why he will win the nomination.