Look, you can ignore the reality of how the nomination process actually works, and engage in WishFulThinking, but a real professional campaign like Romney will not. Romney is in the real #1 spot when he leads in early states, as he is leading in 4 out of 6 early states, and may well win them all.
If he does run the board on IA, NH, MI, NV, WY, and SC, he’s got the nomination.
The national poll means little. What matters is who wins the delegates and they are won state-by-state. You can maybe explain to LS where Fred Thompson is getting his delegates.
I cant figure it out, I mean unless Fred actually beats Mitt and Rudy in SC and FL, where will he win.
“Maybe you’ll convince at least one person.” You may want to revisit intrade odds. Mitt’s at 29% and Fred’s at 7%. Smart money is saying that Mitt is 4 times more likely to win than Fred. Rudy has a better chance than Mitt mainly because he can probably still survive the early state gauntlet for Feb 5th and probably can do real well then.
This is reality. You better wake up to it before Rudy is nominated (not what I want to see happen, but it is 6 times more likely than Fred winning).