The election is one year away. There has not even been a campaign. That said, let me disagree with this poll. This poll of 500 RVs shows Hillary Clinton, a Northern Democrat, beating Fred Thompson, a Republican and a southerner, by 10 points.
This in itself is antihistorical and therefore ludicrous. No Northern Democrat has won Florida since 1944. This poll tells me that the most liberal candidate ever nominated by the Democrats is going to break that streak this year in a 10 point landslide and against a southerner born in neighboring Alabama and raised in Tennessee. That is so patently ridiculous that it does not pass the giggle test.
Anyone familiar with Florida knows that the panhandle and the I-4 corridor are the keys to the state. Both are very conservative. Hillary Clinton may not get 4 votes in the entire panhandle. She won’t do much better along the I-4 corridor. And even a large majority out of Miami Dade will not be enough to make up these huge deficits.
Giuliani and Romney will have problems because they are not southerners and will have no natural connection to the natives. Giuliani especially will have problems because the gun owners, who are very strong may go hunting or vote for a third party. Mark my words. Fred is the only candidate who can most certainly keep Florida in the GOP column.
I see nothing which has transpired in the last month or so since our original discussion which should alter the view of either one of us, even where they have conflicted. I agree that it is too early for the polls to mean much. However as one who maintains a home in Florida I do not like the demographic trends that I see in Broward, Miami, and Palm Beach counties which have become nothing but suburbs of New York City. The i-4 corridor has evolved into something far from a citadel of conservatism and is very likely to shade to the left.
But as you point out, it's too early to call, Florida or anywhere else except we can be confident in our pessimism that there is no blue state in which we have any realistic chance except perhaps Michigan and Minnesota. These two are not very likely to fall into the Republican column despite the fact that Michigan is in desperate shape.
Sometime ago I echoed the mainstream media's questioning about Fred Thompson's drive-or alleged lack of it. I note that the media has not gotten off this hobby horse but rides at every chance it gets. Without engaging in an argument that Thompson has failed to demonstrate sufficient "vigor," let me simply reiterate my original thesis that any Republican candidate is doomed to lose unless he reshapes the entire debate. It is clear that Thompson has not done that nor has any other Republican even attempted to do so except, gasp, Ron Paul.
This observation brings us around full circle to the point of my original post that we cannot win if we fail to carry any one of Florida, Virginia, Ohio, or Missouri and we have lost all of those in the last election.. If we do not change the dynamic we're almost certain to lose at least one of the states and hence, the election.
What can you tell me about Fred Thompson, (whom I agree it is our best chance ) which can reassure me that he is the man to reshape the election and not just run through the motions? This is why I said at the opening: that nothing has occurred which changes our positionseven where they might conflict. I genuinely hope you can disabuse me of this in some way; that Fred Thompson is in fact setting fires, throwing bombs, arousing the troops, and bringing a whole new way of seeing the world into the election.
