A twin nuclear crisis in 2008?

Haaretz ^ | November 9, 2007 | Michalis Firillas

[Schnucki]

Iran's nuclear program, and its president's vitriol, are certainly cause for concern, but they may have served to draw our attention away from a much more immediate danger - in Pakistan. In fact, there are four main reasons why the events unfolding in Pakistan should trouble us greatly, notwithstanding the greater distance separating the two countries, and the fact that the hatred for Israel emanating from there receives much less attention in the Israeli media.

The most basic and obvious problem is that since May 1998, when it carried out a series of underground tests, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan has been a confirmed member of the nuclear club. Its means of delivery may still be limited, but it has a program to develop intermediate-range missiles of North Korean design. The most conservative estimates suggest that Pakistan has managed to produce 600-900 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (enough for at least 30-60 weapons). If that is not worrying enough, Pakistan also has a plutonium-based nuclear weapons program, perhaps intended for backup. But the most disconcerting aspect of all of this is neither the number of assembled weapons, nor the technological know-how: It is the sheer amount of fissile material available at different sites, including nuclear plants, which is also easier to steal, smuggle and use in radiological-type bombs.

Pakistan's current political instability may be part and parcel of the ongoing tug-of-war between the military and civilians for the country's soul, but it could also be the preamble to a civil war. What General Pervez Musharraf did in Pakistan last weekend has been done there by military strongmen before. Moreover, neither under civilian nor military rule has Pakistan managed to achieve long periods of domestic stability and economic growth. But there are three elements that, unlike previous periods of turmoil,

[G8 Diplomat]

FReepmail if you want on or off

[Gengis Khan]

Israelis have a much better appreciation of the threat posed by the current regime of Pakistan then any US media or average FReepers on this forum. Just look at how this article about the real danger posed by Pakistan went almost entirely unnoticed.

[G8 Diplomat]

The article’s about Pakistan’s nukes, not about Musharraf’s regime’s failings. No one’s denying Pakistan is a threat, but as of now it’s about as secure as it can get, because it is not in the hands of the Taliban. If Musharraf were truly a threat, why hasn’t he handed over the nukes to AQ already?

[Gengis Khan]

“No one’s denying Pakistan is a threat, but as of now it’s about as secure as it can get, because it is not in the hands of the Taliban.”

Thats one of the most idiotic reasoning I have heard in a long time. We assume Taliban doesnt have the nukes yet so the nukes must be safer then ever. For someone not in control of his country its too much to expect he would be in control of the nukes. The jihadi elements are not just within the Taliban but also within the Army.

“No one’s denying Pakistan is a threat, but as of now it’s about as secure as it can get, because it is not in the hands of the Taliban. “

How do you know he hasnt already? If he can give it around the world including countries like Iran and NK what makes you so sure he wont give it to Taliban.

[jrsmc]

Israelis have a much better appreciation of the threat posed by the current regime of Pakistan then any US media or average FReepers on this forum.

It has not gone unnoticed in financial forums where it is perceived to be more dangerous than Iran.