Not necessarily. Go to pollster.com and check out the charts. They combine the polls to generate single charts that yield very insightful numbers and trends.
What the combined polls are showing is a strong and significant trend of increasing support for Mitt Romney in the early state primaries. Fred Thompson's support, on the other hand peaked early and is dropping off.
Giuliani seems to have locked up a certain sector of the electorate in these states early and hasn't gained much more support over time.
Interesting. Combining the polls makes sense.
-—”Fred Thompson’s support, on the other hand peaked early and is dropping off.”-—
It’s a little misleading though. Nobody has really felt the Romney boom yet for the simple reason that he has to wait unitl he wins those early primaries to actually have the “momentum” for all to see. It’s not that it isn’t there yet - it’s that conditions make it under-the-radar, so to speak.
The same is true with Fred. We’re not seeing a lot of polls in the South yet, where a large chunk of the delegates will be earned. The few we have seen (SC excepted) show rather asounding leads for FDT.
So while the national trend shows Fred with a slight tailing and Mitt as stagnant and maybe maxed-out, neither one is based on total information - just on a current snapshot of “likely voters” taken over many states, with slightly more polling done in larger states because of population.
I happen to think that both Mitt’s and Fred’s support, espcially what their support will ultimately be when people vote, is higher than current polls advertise.