Thompson has squandered nothing as of yet and there is no evidence at all that Hunter would be anywhere other than where is is now if Fred had not entered.
***Handily going past your “polls not Intrade” fallacy, I point out that Hunter was once trading at ~2.5% at one time, there was activity from January until about July, when FredRunning rumors were getting hot. Fred announced in September. Fred took his support. We all saw it here on FR.
Indeed as far back as I can tell his numbers have been consistent. He seemed to not move up or down upon Fred mention or later entry in the big show.
***Here, of course, you’re talking national polling numbers, but he is at 4% in 2 recent polls. Pissant can provide the links, but I have my hands full with this thread so I will not go and fetch for you.
If you have numbers, polls not In Trade, that show otherwise please let me know. Any fluctuation needs to be outside the MOE of course.
***I don’t know if his poll numbers are yet outside the MOE. But since I have not dealt much in poll numbers in the past and have grown to accept some of the wisdom offered in futures markets, I think I found my unbiased vehicle for data until a better one shows up.
I will address other aspects of your post later, gotta go now.
I’ll stick with traditon, not gambling...
I see no evidence of a wholesale “stealing” of DH’s support. Yes there were some on FR, but then ask yourself why did they jump when others didn’t...
As far as at 4% I found one of the polls, the CNN one, the other I’ll even give you...
4% in two polls...
Ok now what?