“Rudy’s ceiling is 30%. That’s it.”
Isn’t it reasonable to think that Rudy will draw some % of the undecideds, and as some of the other candidates drop out, shouldn’t he also get a % of that support as well?
Generously, however, he might get 30% of the undecideds -- 6% -- bringing his total to 36%. And he might even get 30% of the two candidates with significant numbers who are likely to drop out -- McCain at 14+%, and Huckabee at 8+% -- bringing Rudy's total to 43%. That's still under 50%.
I can't see him getting much at all from Tancredo and Hunter, and I expect Thompson and Romney to stay in all the way to what I now expect to be a brokered convention.