Edwards is the likeliest bet, overall. Obama recently drove the 'rat gay/lesbian community into absolute shrieking hysterics by having some gospel singer by the name of Donnie McClurkin performing at some campaign fundraisers on his behalf; said (still-)ongoing tantrum due to McClurkin's being active in anti-gay agenda circles.
While the gay/lesbian voting population isn't a massive one, overall... it's a wildly disporportionate powerhouse within the Democratic Party, itself. That's the chiefest reason why Obama's polling numbers have been steadily dwindling on the national level, right there.
Edwards is telegenic and (superficially, at least) charming. He's the most articulate of all the potential 'rat nominees, and can easily speak impromptu. He's the threat, ultimately.
Can’t disagree with any of your logic. The only problem is, Edwards isn’t in the top TWO of any major poll except, I think, NC. It’s a matter of delegates, and don’t underestimate the ability of the Clintons to at gunpoint “persuade” people to vote for Hillary. If I see Edwards win one or two primaries, I’m down with your interpretation. But not until then.