Posted on 11/17/2007 7:04:35 AM PST by sukhoi-30mki
Nothing Mushy about this mess
Pakistan's Army Chief, Gen Pervez Musharraf, suspended the provisions of the 1973 Constitution on November 3. He proclaimed a 'Provisional Constitutional Order', which enabled him to sack the country's assertive Chief Justice, Mr Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, and other judges, who refused to swear allegiance to an extra-constitutional order that ended judicial independence and denied Pakistani nationals the right to life and liberty.
Gen Musharraf alleged that the judiciary had forced him to release terrorists captured from Lal Masjid in Islamabad. This despite the fact that two judges -- Justice Abbasi and Justice Khokhar -- who were overzealous in getting the terrorists released, fell in line with the General's demands. This has raised questions whether they had conspired with Gen Musharraf to demand the release of the terrorists in order to discredit the Supreme Court. Gen Musharraf's rationale for dismissing the judges on the grounds of their releasing terrorists was further eroded the very next day after he imposed martial law, when he approved the release of 20 terrorists to secure the release of over 200 soldiers captured by Baitullah Mehsud, the militant tribal leader in Waziristan.
Gen Musharraf held out the spectre of a takeover of Pakistan by pro-Taliban religious extremists as yet another reason for his action. But he has not answered why, despite his huge powers, the writ of the Pakistan Government's writ no longer runs in a large part of the North-West Frontier Province. How is it that he permitted radicals to erode the credibility of his Government internationally by seizing control of Lal Masjid (located just over a mile away from Gen Musharraf's office) and terrorising people in Islamabad?
One has to analyse how Gen Musharraf's misplaced policy of seeking "strategic depth" through making Afghanistan a client state by propping up the Taliban and of continuing efforts to "bleed India with a thousand cuts" through jihadi groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Tayyeba have backfired and undermined the security of Pakistan itself.
Gen Musharraf's predicament arises primarily from his duplicity in claiming to be a "staunch ally" in US President George W Bush's war on terrorism, which commenced with the ouster of the Taliban from Afghanistan. American military operations were badly executed, resulting in the Taliban leadership escaping to Baluchistan and finding shelter in places like Quetta. At the same time, Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda, Chechen, Uzbek and Uighur supporters found shelter in the tribal areas of Waziristan, in Pakistan's NWFP.
For over three years, the ISI permitted Taliban leaders, including Mullah Omar, to cross over into Quetta and the NWFP. A rejuvenated, regrouped and rearmed Taliban stepped up attacks since 2006, inflicting heavy casualties on American and NATO forces in Afghanistan. The US then forced Gen Musharraf to crackdown on pro-Taliban elements in the tribal areas, compelling him to adopt a duplicitous policy of supporting the Taliban leadership in Baluchistan, while cracking down on their supporters in the tribal areas.
The operations by the Pakistan Army in the tribal areas have been disastrous. Over 1,000 soldiers have been killed in shootouts and suicide bombings. Around 400 officers and men face court martial proceedings for refusing to fight against "fellow Muslims". Around 500 officers and soldiers have surrendered to pro-Taliban militants without firing a shot. As indiscriminate air attacks by the Pakistan Air Force and Army helicopter gunships caused large civilian casualties, the tribals retaliated with suicide bombings on Pakistan Army installations, including the elite Special Services Group, once commanded by Gen Musharraf himself, ISI personnel in Rawalpindi and the strategic Sargodha Airbase in Punjab.
Tribal anger was further fuelled by reports that the SSG killed around 300 Pashtun women students when they stormed Lal Masjid in July. Moreover, signs of a Shia-Sunni divide are appearing for the first time in the Pakistan armed forces, with reports that units of the predominantly Shia Northern Light Infantry (used by Gen Musharraf in Kargil) have been brought into Waziristan, with the tribals retaliating by selectively killing captured Shia soldiers.
Coercion and force will be used extensively by Gen Musharraf to deal with political opponents as he has now virtually ruled out either ending martial law or quitting as Army chief soon. He has been helped by the fact that his extensive dealings with Ms Benazir Bhutto have eroded her credibility and effectively dimmed the prospects of a unified Opposition confronting him. Most reports now suggest that in the Punjab province, it is Mr Nawaz Sharif and not Ms Bhutto who enjoys the widest popularity. But Mr Sharif is not a favoured politician of the Americans and given the fact that Gen Musharraf has made it clear that he will not reinstate the judges he has fired, the exiled leader will certainly be arrested and possibly packed off to Saudi Arabia again, if he chooses to return. Thus, with the backing of the MQM in Karachi and his chosen Chief Minister Pervez Elahi calling the shots in Lahore , no effort will be spared to ensure that any attempt to mobilise crowds to demonstrate against Gen Musharraf will be crushed, both in Punjab and urban Sind.
Despite these developments, Gen Musharraf faces the prospect of his hold on power being gradually eroded, primarily because he is unpopular and distrusted within Pakistan. Shari'ah is now effectively in force across the NWFP, with men being forced to grow beards, barber shops and video parlours forcibly shut down, those not observing regular prayers being whipped in public, women not being permitted to go to shops unless escorted by a male family member, educational institutions for girls being shut down, ancient Buddhist sculptures being defaced and destroyed and an illegal radio station in the picturesque Swat Valley, run by Mullah Fazlullah, spouting venom. All this is the outcome of nine years of Gen Musharraf's stated policy of "enlightened moderation".
Given the massive deployment of its forces on its western frontiers, Pakistan will naturally want to avoid provoking India, especially when New Delhi has been more than correct in not fishing in Islamabad's troubled waters. But policies, like circumstances, change. There is no place for misplaced sentimentalism in dealing with the mercurial General who rules our western neighbour. Terrorism as an instrument of state policy has not yet been discarded by Pakistan's rulers -- either in Afghanistan or India.
Gopalaswami Parthasarathy retired from the Indian Foreign Service in May 2000 after a long and distinguished career. He served as India's ambassador/high commissioner to Burma, Australia and finally, Pakistan and at Indian missions in Washington, Moscow, Dar es Salaam and Karachi earlier. In Delhi he served as the spokesman at the ministry of external affairs and as information adviser to then prime minister Rajiv Gandhi.
Here’s the problem, and it’s not Musharraf alone.
He merely represents the military and any “elected” government is going to have to make some accommodations with the military and the military will have to want to make those accommodations with that “elected” government.
In the end, the political groups can organize the mobs in the street, but, behind the scenes, they will have to organize some consensus route forward with the military, or, election or not, there will be no consensus and another Musharraf will be waiting in the wings.
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