But do you think the lefties already think they know how Kennedy will vote? And if they do think that, are they justified? This of course is assuming we know how the other eight will vote, which I don’t think we do, for reasons already mentioned.
The four conservatives are very likely to vote for an individual right. They are all more-or-less originalists and the historic record of the original meaning of the 2nd is very strong (even convincing lefties like Alan Dershowitz).
The four lefties are certain to vote against an individual right because, well, they are lefties and they don't care what the constitution says or means. They just do what they think is right and any well-indoctrinated leftie thinks guns are only for folks who have badges.
Kennedy, who knows? I'm very uncomfortable hanging the second amendment on such a weak reed.
The one hopeful sign here is that the issue posed by the court is very narrow--it is phrased to deal with just the individual vs collective issue for private use in the home in Washington DC. This means the supremes are not ready to bite off, for example, concealed carry. It also means that the conservatives probably crafted the issue to be narrow because they thought Kennedy was going to have a hard time with the "guns on the street" problem.
It's also a very narrow issue posed in that DC is Federal Jurisdiction. So the judges don't have to decide if the second amendment applies to the States.
The narrowness of the definition of the issue has Robert's footprints all over it. That is the one good indicator I can see.
If we win this case, we still have a long way to go--concealed carry, does the second amemdment apply to the states, etc? If we lose, it's a complete and total loss--there is no second amendment left because the individual/collective issue will have been decided against us and a collective right is meaningless.