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Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?
Real Clear Politics ^ | 20 November 2007 | Tom Bevan

Posted on 11/20/2007 8:47:19 PM PST by Spiff


Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

TOM BEVAN

In early October I argued there was a disconnect between the way the pundits and voters viewed Fred Thompson's candidacy. Sitting here six weeks later, however, evidence continues to pour in that Thompson has completely underwhelmed the Republican electorate.

It seems like every other day a new poll comes out in a key early state showing Fred losing ground - sometimes significant ground. Indeed, if you take a look at groups that have conducted at least two surveys since early September (when Thompson officially entered the race and began campaigning) the trend lines are unmistakable:

freddead.gif

Thompson is now running a distant fourth in Iowa, has almost dropped off the charts to sixth place in New Hampshire, is running in 3rd place in South Carolina about 4 points behind Romney and Giuliani, and has fallen well off the pace into 3rd in Florida.

The national polls aren't as important, but still reflect the same downward trend:

freddead2.gif

Thompson has shed seven and a half points in the RCP Average since he officially entered the race.

This is more than a candidate not being able to sustain a "bump." In fact, outside of the NRLC endorsement last week, it's hard to find any positive evidence for Thompson at the moment. To the contrary, backers of Thompson are now expressing doubts to the press.

So can Thompson turn it around? As we all know by now, anything is possible in politics. And, as is usually the case, it all starts with Iowa. With New Hampshire effectively off the table, Thompson's campaign cannot afford a poor showing in Iowa or it'll be on life support by the time South Carolina rolls around.

Indeed, Larry Kudlow reports in his column today that the Thompson folks are now focusing heavily on Iowa:

[Thompson's] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. They see a strong opportunity for a Thompson surge in the state, undermining Romney and inflicting damage on Giuliani.

Watch and see if the NRLC endorsement and increased spending in Iowa spark a turnaround for Thompson. At this point, it's his best (and perhaps only) hope of staying in the game long enough to score a win in South Carolina - a state no eventual Republican nominee for president has ever lost.



TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: doa; fredthompson; mitt; mittromney; naptime; romney; spacemanspiff; thinkfulwishing
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1 posted on 11/20/2007 8:47:19 PM PST by Spiff
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To: Spiff

Where’s the picture of the Star Trek doc?


2 posted on 11/20/2007 8:49:28 PM PST by GOP_Lady (Death to the Nanny State!)
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To: Spiff

How did I know that Spiff was the poster before I even looked? Are the Mittwits so worried about “Ol’ grandpa Fred” that they have to start all these threads? What are you worried about, spiff?! Just because Mitt’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep?


3 posted on 11/20/2007 8:52:02 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
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To: Spiff

-—[Thompson’s] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. -—

Now all they need to add is hard work, intelligence, energy, and charm. Good for them!


4 posted on 11/20/2007 8:52:20 PM PST by claudiustg (You know it. I know it.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Don’t ya just love the smell of fear in the wee hours? Bwaahhahaha


5 posted on 11/20/2007 8:53:59 PM PST by MHGinTN (Believing they cannot be deceived, they cannot be convinced when they are deceived.)
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To: GOP_Lady

He's not dead. Well, he's....he's, ah...probably pining for the fjords.


6 posted on 11/20/2007 8:53:59 PM PST by Spiff (<------ Click here for updated polling results. Go Mitt! www.mittromney.com)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Mitt will go down the tubes.........and I for one will ream it up (somebody’s nose) : )


7 posted on 11/20/2007 8:54:58 PM PST by stephenjohnbanker (Pray for, and support our troops(heroes) !! And vote out the RINO's!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I think he is just gloating at fred’s demise.


8 posted on 11/20/2007 8:55:19 PM PST by CJ Wolf (The Founding Fathers never intended a nation where citizens pay nearly half of everything they earn)
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To: Spiff

“No, no, he’s stunned...”


9 posted on 11/20/2007 8:56:09 PM PST by Old Sarge (This tagline in memory of FReeper 68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub)
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To: GOP_Lady

10 posted on 11/20/2007 8:57:28 PM PST by Old Sarge (This tagline in memory of FReeper 68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub)
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To: CJ Wolf
"I think he is just gloating at fred’s demise."

Second place in the national polls is "demise" now, is it?

11 posted on 11/20/2007 8:57:28 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
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To: GOP_Lady
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

"He's dead Jim"


12 posted on 11/20/2007 8:57:59 PM PST by Cobra64 (www.BulletBras.net)
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To: Spiff

Something is wrong with the campaign, that’s for sure. A shame, too.


13 posted on 11/20/2007 8:59:09 PM PST by abercrombie_guy_38
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To: Spiff

Does anyone see a way where he takes the nomination? If so, let us know your thoughts.


14 posted on 11/20/2007 9:01:57 PM PST by GOP_Lady (Death to the Nanny State!)
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To: Spiff

May I ask why you are backing Romney?

No sarcasm.


15 posted on 11/20/2007 9:02:32 PM PST by stephenjohnbanker (Pray for, and support our troops(heroes) !! And vote out the RINO's!!)
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To: Spiff

Fred's got himself a pretty, young wife, though.


16 posted on 11/20/2007 9:04:23 PM PST by Jeff Chandler ("Liberals want to save the world for the children they aren't having." -Mark Steyn)
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To: Spiff

I’m an ardent Fred supporter and have been on record from last winter saying that I wanted Fred to run and win. But I do not understand why his campaign is apparently so lackadaisical, and why the electorate doesn’t recognize his virtues. He’s not just right on the issues, but he expresses the right position beautifully. Why on earth are they supporting Giuliani? It isn’t just that Rudy is the only candidate they’ve heard of—lots of people watch Law & Order. I’m mystified and disappointed.


17 posted on 11/20/2007 9:06:09 PM PST by Fairview ( Everybody is somebody else's weirdo.)
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To: Spiff
Seems to me that the primary campaign is wide open. Let’s let the process work as it was designed to do — which is to let the campaigners make their cases and avoid media-driven months-in-advance knee-jerk politics.
18 posted on 11/20/2007 9:07:28 PM PST by Mad_Tom_Rackham (Elections have consequences.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
What are you worried about, spiff?! Just because Mitt’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep?

Good One, ROFLOL :)

19 posted on 11/20/2007 9:07:30 PM PST by org.whodat (What's the difference between a Democrat and a republican????)
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To: Fairview

Me, personally, I like Mr. Thompson and always have. To me, he’s saying the same thing that was said in 1996 (old), and it’s time to get up-to-date and move on and, of course, he’s not motivating and neither is his campaign. I expected more from him and his campaign. It is puzzling.


20 posted on 11/20/2007 9:10:28 PM PST by GOP_Lady
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To: org.whodat

I have repeatedly asked pro Romney advocates why they are voting for him (no BS) Not one has ever answered me.


21 posted on 11/20/2007 9:11:40 PM PST by stephenjohnbanker (Pray for, and support our troops(heroes) !! And vote out the RINO's!!)
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To: Fairview

-—But I do not understand why his campaign is apparently so lackadaisical, and why the electorate doesn’t recognize his virtues. -—

Yes, wasn’t he on Jay Leno once?


22 posted on 11/20/2007 9:12:24 PM PST by claudiustg (You know it. I know it.)
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To: Spiff

The interesting and repugnant exchanges in threads continue.

Brit Hume does ultimate knife job on Fred Thompson (VANITY)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1928594/posts


23 posted on 11/20/2007 9:13:25 PM PST by familyop (Roma est perdita)
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To: Spiff

This has been the risk of his campaign strategy all along. Primaries depend on a ground game. Fred has none. I was at a Republican event last week. Romney, Giuliani, Huckabee and even Ron Paul had a speaker there on their behalf. FT did not.


24 posted on 11/20/2007 9:14:17 PM PST by ModelBreaker
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To: Fairview

Never interfere with your enemy when he’s in the process of damaging himself.
When two adversaries are fighting it out, let them wear each other out and then wade in.

Works in video games (HALO) and real life China (Mao during and after WWII).


25 posted on 11/20/2007 9:14:47 PM PST by blackshoe
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To: Jeff Chandler

Fred won’t be the nominee.

I wish him and his wife well.

In addition to having a “pretty, young wife.”, he also has a serious medical condition.

I pity you, and take no sustenance from your post.


26 posted on 11/20/2007 9:14:58 PM PST by Hilltop (?)
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To: Spiff
Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

No, no he's just tired out after a prolonged squawk.....

27 posted on 11/20/2007 9:16:24 PM PST by billbears (Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it. --Santayana)
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To: stephenjohnbanker

Mitt is well qualified, energetic, intelligent, well organized, and has a great platform.


28 posted on 11/20/2007 9:16:58 PM PST by claudiustg (You know it. I know it.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Ok, maybe it’s just a downward trend. Not good.


29 posted on 11/20/2007 9:17:08 PM PST by CJ Wolf (The Founding Fathers never intended a nation where citizens pay nearly half of everything they earn)
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To: claudiustg

I’ll second that. I believe that covers a lot.


30 posted on 11/20/2007 9:18:41 PM PST by GOP_Lady
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To: stephenjohnbanker
I have repeatedly asked pro Romney advocates why they are voting for him (no BS) Not one has ever answered me.

Have tried to get hucksters supports to tell me when he plans to deport the illegals he wants to give a free college eduction. Since they claim he doesn't support amnesty.

31 posted on 11/20/2007 9:18:53 PM PST by org.whodat (What's the difference between a Democrat and a republican????)
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To: claudiustg
Mitt is well qualified, energetic, intelligent, well organized, and agrees with hillary 95% of the time.

There fixed it!

32 posted on 11/20/2007 9:22:37 PM PST by org.whodat (What's the difference between a Democrat and a republican????)
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To: GOP_Lady

I left out optimism, the sense that we can deal with the problems that confront us — maybe the most important quality.


33 posted on 11/20/2007 9:23:05 PM PST by claudiustg (You know it. I know it.)
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To: stephenjohnbanker
I have repeatedly asked pro Romney advocates why they are voting for him (no BS) Not one has ever answered me.

Wonder which one of the mittmut posters is the stalker??

34 posted on 11/20/2007 9:25:31 PM PST by org.whodat (What's the difference between a Democrat and a republican????)
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To: Spiff

Fred Thompson can lead this Country. Can he beat Hillary? Not with this discourse. The ones on this thread are given with a modicon of respect. Give an answer, because I support Senator Thompson but cannot imagine a Hillary explosion. Who Wins?


35 posted on 11/20/2007 9:26:05 PM PST by eyedigress
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Second place in the national polls is "demise" now, is it?

You just earned the "Fred's Not Dead Badge." Congrats!

36 posted on 11/20/2007 9:26:07 PM PST by Spiff (<------ Click here for updated polling results. Go Mitt! www.mittromney.com)
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To: All
1994 Flyer Reveals Romney's Conservative Positions
37 posted on 11/20/2007 9:26:20 PM PST by Swordfished
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To: claudiustg

Kind of like Ronald Reagan (a little) in a way, possibly? Americans really want someone that is optimistic (unless your a dem, of course). I don’t think the other candidates show any optimism (maybe you could say Huckabee does somewhat).


38 posted on 11/20/2007 9:27:26 PM PST by GOP_Lady
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To: claudiustg

Yet you leave off “Conservative”...

It’s ok, 86% of Freepers would do the same thing...


39 posted on 11/20/2007 9:27:36 PM PST by ejonesie22 (ROMNEY HOCKS! (hey, he's spent a lot of his own cash so far...))
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To: stephenjohnbanker
I have repeatedly asked pro Romney advocates why they are voting for him (no BS) Not one has ever answered me.

Because we know that you're just trolling.

40 posted on 11/20/2007 9:27:47 PM PST by Spiff (<------ Click here for updated polling results. Go Mitt! www.mittromney.com)
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To: Swordfished

Conservative positions should not need “revealing” if one is an actual Conservative...


41 posted on 11/20/2007 9:29:45 PM PST by ejonesie22 (ROMNEY HOCKS! (hey, he's spent a lot of his own cash so far...))
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To: Spiff

Thompson is a lethargic, snooze-fest candidate. He has no realistic chance of winning the nomination, and it’s a good thing he doesn’t. He could never win the general election. He just doesn’t have anywhere near the energy needed to prosecute a strong, national election race. His candidacy was never anything but a pathetic pipe-dream.


42 posted on 11/20/2007 9:30:11 PM PST by Irene Adler (')
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To: org.whodat
Wonder which one of the mittmut posters is the stalker??

DRINK!!!

43 posted on 11/20/2007 9:30:36 PM PST by Spiff (<------ Click here for updated polling results. Go Mitt! www.mittromney.com)
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To: Spiff
"In 1980, with approximately 106,000 people involved, Reagan again was the second choice of Republican caucus participants. George Bush won 31.6 percent support and Reagan 29.5 percent." From the history of the Iowa caucuses!

Iowa the great predictor! LOL

44 posted on 11/20/2007 9:31:53 PM PST by org.whodat (What's the difference between a Democrat and a republican????)
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To: Swordfished

Oh, I read that article not to long ago. Very interesting an informative.


45 posted on 11/20/2007 9:32:13 PM PST by GOP_Lady
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To: Irene Adler

Go ahead and tell us who gets the Nomination and whom gets the VP elect. (You know who it is)


46 posted on 11/20/2007 9:33:23 PM PST by eyedigress
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To: Spiff
DRINK!!!

What's that? You've been drinking, who here would have guessed it?

47 posted on 11/20/2007 9:33:45 PM PST by org.whodat (What's the difference between a Democrat and a republican????)
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To: org.whodat

Iowa really isn’t important, I don’t think, because it’s not a true primary. I think just about anyone would say so as well.


48 posted on 11/20/2007 9:34:14 PM PST by GOP_Lady
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To: Spiff

I don’t know why anyone thought FT would be the big conservative savior. Maybe because he looks the part?

I don’t know.


49 posted on 11/20/2007 9:34:15 PM PST by dragnet2
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To: Spiff

More crap from a Mittwitt.


50 posted on 11/20/2007 9:35:35 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (~~~Jihad Fever -- Catch It !~~~ (Backup tag: "Live Fred or Die"))
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