Posted on 11/21/2007 11:56:00 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Mitt Romney has already built a huge organization in Iowa, where getting people to the caucuses is key (see the Ames straw poll). Mike Huckabee will be a natural candidate for the evangelicals that vote for the man they perceive as being "most Christian" or like them. Senator Thompson needs the undecideds, the people that won't vote for Mitt or Rudy and the religious that know how phony & liberal Huckabee truly is (Jimmy Carter--the sequel). With the lowered expectations and Fox News saying "Fred ids dead" 3rd place will shake up the campaign, allowing Fred to surge forward in the South, his natural habitat.
Huckabee has big support from a popular talk show host in Iowa, primarily for his religious background and stand on abortion. I understand that’s his biggest asset in the state.
If you dig down into the rest of the poll it shows terrorism and national security the top issue and illegal immigration second. The problem for Huckabee is that he’s definitely on the wrong side on illegal immigration (a requirement in a state where Tyson is about the largest employer) and I think he’s also weak on terrorism/national security. There have been a slew of articles recently that illegal immigration is getting to be a top shelf issue and that his record will be overwhelmingly viewed negatively by folks in Iowa (they’re wanting enforcement and border control). Cedar Rapids is driving some of this because their city council is talking about declaring it a sanctuary city. Fred is running ads, particularly in Iowa, and pushing hard on illegal immigration. He’s also tagged Huckabee, I think effectively, as a “pro life liberal.”
After all of the negative attacks on Fred by the MSM he’s in a position to overcome artificially low expectations with even a strong 3rd, let alone a 2nd or first place finish. If he wins Iowa outright I think the nomination is almost automatically his. He’ll publicly write off New Hampshire as a “favorite son” done deal for Romney and move his resources to the South and mop up there.
Huckabee's and Mitt's...yes, Rudy's...no. There are indeed Republicans who are pro-abort -- they're called rinos and Rudy is the man for them -- no question about it.
The problem is some conservatives see and hear what Mitt is saying and that he says it very well and they want to believe he's genuine... but they need to wake up and smell the coffee!!
All they have to do is a little research and a little soul searching.
As for the Huckster... he may be alright but I still believe Fred is the better candidate. Plus... I just fear what the Clintoon machine might have on him.
In related news, The Michigan SC ruled today that the MI primary is back on for Jan 15th.
Believe it of not, that is bad news for Romney because RAT crossover will deside the outcome on the Republican side.
Which likely means Ron Paul wins and shows Romney unable to carry his native state.
It also means the NH primary will be moved up.
Do you mean Jan Michelson on WHO Radio?
That’s the last appeal, right?
The Michigan primary is final, right?
Haven't read past this line yet, just going on record to say that the following is something negative about Fred. I could be wrong tho!
reading
there we go! 2nd coming, check. no fire, check
I'm getting good at this! lol
That is what the Michigan SC said today and I don’t think there is a court that can overrule them.
I just got that in an email from the state party chairman.
“there we go! 2nd coming, check. no fire, check”
So your position is that Fred wasn’t hyped as the “One”
and learn to read....I didn’t say anything about Freds fire, I said his campaign has yet to catch fire.
Well....my candidate (Paul) had a 300 percent increase.....so I guess I can be charitable and concede that the 15 percent increase in the support of your candidate is a “surge.”
I’m all for Fred but this gives the real surge a bad name.
Fred Thompson was the one I WISHED would run, but didn't think he would.
The real news in this poll is a huge Huckabee surge. How depressing. Thompson is shown going from 13% to 15%, hardly a surge.
lets see....
1. the MSM has TOTALLY blacked out all Thompson commentary.
2. FNC has totally gone into whoring for Giuliani. Luntz, who can’t even grasp the simple concept Hillary Clinton is in deed and FACT a socialist, has pronounced Thompsons campaign as DOA. The FNC all stars have now declared Thompson DOA. Shaun Hanity, but buddy of Giuliani, has said Giuliani is the only viable nominee.
3. CNN and PMSNBC only report Giuliani vs Hillary or report Giulaini and “the other guys” or just report on ronpaul or huckabee.
4. C-Span seminar callers have now switch to “I used to be a republican but I switch to independent and will vote for huckabee...or ronpaul”
5. IOW there is no avenue for the Thompson message to get out. none. The internet is not dominant enough for raw news and face time. The MSM has that still locked up.
Agree.
Huckabee is hoping for a slingshot effect from this.
Newsflash, huckabee is not going to play in the south.
No more hope arkansas paaaaahleeeeez.
“Fred Thompson was the one I WISHED would run, but didn’t think he would.”
Well, he’s running now. I just see him trending down, at what point does he have to be running either first or second.
It's the other candidates' job to wake up the voters. I see that Huckster scores most strongly on "best understands the problems of people like you", "is the most honest and trustworthy", and "Social issues, such as abortion and gay civil unions". Clearly, there is a Huck surge in Iowa, and to counter it, his opponents are going to have to attack those perceived strengths.
Your screen name suggests you would be a Paul supporter, I think.....
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