Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Washington Post-ABC News Poll (Fred Thompson surging in Iowa!)
The Washington Post ^ | Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Posted on 11/21/2007 11:56:00 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone November 14-18, 2007, among a random sample of 400 Iowans likely to vote in the Republican caucus. The results have a five percentage point margin of sampling error. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa. *= less than 0.5 percent --snip--

4. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) If the caucuses were being held today, would you attend the (Democratic Party caucus) or the (Republican Party caucus) in your precinct? Democratic caucus Republican caucus 11/18/07 0 100 7/31/07 0 100

5. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, and Fred Thompson), who would you support? NET LEANED VOTE: (Continued)

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa; US: Tennessee
KEYWORDS: advertising; caucuses; conservatives; election; electionpresident; elections; endorsements; fredthompson; gop; ia2008; nrlc; nrtl; polls; republicans; righttolife; valuesvoters
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-129 next last
Fred Thompson is now in third place in Iowa. I am guessing that the National Right To Life Committee endorsement plus the two ads he is running there, plus the mailer he sent to almost everyone are doing their work.
1 posted on 11/21/2007 11:56:01 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

But, but, but......the media is constantly saying that Fred’s campaign is collapsing.


2 posted on 11/21/2007 11:57:46 AM PST by Wonder Warthog (The Hog of Steel-NRA)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Fred can take about half of Huckabee’s support and siphon off a little of Mitt’s and Rudy’s and win this thing.


3 posted on 11/21/2007 11:58:31 AM PST by RockinRight (Just because you're pro-life and talk about God a lot doesn't mean you're a conservative.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Go Fred Go!


4 posted on 11/21/2007 11:59:41 AM PST by Ditter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Don’t care for the methodology, but the trend is nice. ;)


5 posted on 11/21/2007 11:59:41 AM PST by kevkrom ("Should government be doing this? And if so, then at what level of government?" - FDT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Wonder Warthog
"But, but, but......the media is constantly saying that Fred’s campaign is collapsing."

That's because they want a RINO versus Hillary/Obama matchup in November 2008.

6 posted on 11/21/2007 11:59:44 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Politicalmom; jellybean; Josh Painter; ejonesie22; papasmurf; Bobbisox; DesScorp; thefactor; ...
Fred surging in Iowa ping!!
7 posted on 11/21/2007 12:01:16 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Since when is a two point gain to 15 percent a “surge.” Ron Paul has gained even more as has Huckabee.


8 posted on 11/21/2007 12:01:31 PM PST by Captain Kirk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: RockinRight
Fred can take about half of Huckabee’s support ...

Wow! That must be some great stuff you are smoking. Want to share?

9 posted on 11/21/2007 12:01:37 PM PST by TexasRedeye (Eschew obfuscation)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: kevkrom
"Don’t care for the methodology, but the trend is nice. ;)"

Spiff ought to be along any minute now to tell us why this poll is an outlier and doesn't mean anything...

10 posted on 11/21/2007 12:02:30 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: TexasRedeye

Why couldn’t he?

All he has to do is expose that Huck’s a socialist fraud and he’s well on his way to doing that.


11 posted on 11/21/2007 12:02:34 PM PST by RockinRight (Just because you're pro-life and talk about God a lot doesn't mean you're a conservative.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

The ads are good ones... and he looks great, which is important given his health concerns.


12 posted on 11/21/2007 12:02:55 PM PST by WhistlingPastTheGraveyard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TexasRedeye

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1928529/posts


13 posted on 11/21/2007 12:03:23 PM PST by RockinRight (Just because you're pro-life and talk about God a lot doesn't mean you're a conservative.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Go Fred go!


14 posted on 11/21/2007 12:04:20 PM PST by Reagan Man (FUHGETTABOUTIT Rudy....... Conservatives don't vote for liberals!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

70% of Romney supporters say they may change their mind.

Of course, there is also a 70% chance that Romney may change his mind on any issue.


15 posted on 11/21/2007 12:04:59 PM PST by iowamark
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Wonder Warthog
"But, but, but......the media is constantly saying that Fred’s campaign is collapsing."

Yeah, along with those on this forum who won't let go of their "favorites" and post the anti-Fred talking points.

We're a year away from the actual election, and more than half of Americans aren't even watching the "campaigns".

Huckabee and Fred jump up when those who ARE watching start listening to what is offered and who is "electable". Stay tuned, as Fred is still the one who would rally the flyover country voters in a general election more than any other candidate.

16 posted on 11/21/2007 12:05:04 PM PST by traditional1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Captain Kirk

psst, did you look. Your guy went down 2 points


17 posted on 11/21/2007 12:05:38 PM PST by Kaslin (Peace is the aftermath of victory)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Fred Thompson is now in third place in Iowa”

He was in third place in the comparative survey on 31st July, when he was 13 points behind Mitt Romney.

In the latest survey he is still in 3rd place and still 13 points behind Romney.

Meanwhile Huckabee has tripled his support and gone from joint 4th to 2nd.

It would be more accurate to characterise that as a surge than Thompson’s numbers, wouldn’t it?


18 posted on 11/21/2007 12:05:47 PM PST by UKTory
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Sticking to the plan guys, sticking to the plan...

Doesn’t hurt that the “Conservative” Mitt Romney is getting a few holes worn in him...

19 posted on 11/21/2007 12:06:11 PM PST by ejonesie22 (Mitt Romney, Republican Conservative?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
NET LEANED VOTE:
11/18/07 7/31/07
Mitt Romney 28 26
Mike Huckabee 24 8
Fred Thompson 15 13
Rudy Giuliani 13 14
John McCain 6 8
Ron Paul 6 2
Tom Tancredo 2 5
Duncan Hunter 1 1
20 posted on 11/21/2007 12:06:21 PM PST by Petronski (Reject the liberal troika: romney, giuliani, mccain)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Spiff ought to be along any minute now to tell us why this poll is an outlier and doesn't mean anything

Would that be before or after he tells us how the latest ARG or Zogby poll shows the inevitability of Romney?

21 posted on 11/21/2007 12:06:43 PM PST by kevkrom ("Should government be doing this? And if so, then at what level of government?" - FDT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Captain Kirk; Admin Moderator

“Since when is a two point gain to 15 percent a “surge.””

Agreed.

Title abuse, if not more


22 posted on 11/21/2007 12:06:58 PM PST by Shermy ("A rising tide lifts all boats" ...but lowers those on the other side of the ocean.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: iowamark
Of course, there is also a 70% chance that Romney may change his mind on any issue.

So, he's getting more consistent now?

23 posted on 11/21/2007 12:07:30 PM PST by kevkrom ("Should government be doing this? And if so, then at what level of government?" - FDT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Wonder Warthog

I think the main part of that story is Huckabee.


24 posted on 11/21/2007 12:07:31 PM PST by Old Retired Army Guy (tHE)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I don’t understand where you got that subtitle.


25 posted on 11/21/2007 12:07:52 PM PST by Petronski (Reject the liberal troika: romney, giuliani, mccain)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

a surge from 13% to 15%....That’s HUGH!


26 posted on 11/21/2007 12:08:09 PM PST by rface (kooky inside and out)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: UKTory

It’s all about perception. If Mr. Thompson places third in Iowa, when he isn’t expected to, he will “surge” in South Carolina, Florida and Nevada.


27 posted on 11/21/2007 12:08:29 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin
psst, did you look. Your guy went down 2 points

SPEEEEEEW - you owe me a keyboard. LOL

28 posted on 11/21/2007 12:08:53 PM PST by TexasRedeye (Eschew obfuscation)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
There are no Fred Thompson supporters in Iowa.
Not a single one.


29 posted on 11/21/2007 12:09:54 PM PST by McGruff (A "Big Time" Fred Thompson supporter!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Shermy; Admin Moderator

He is surging from where he was recently, not from July!


30 posted on 11/21/2007 12:10:19 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

And the voters must have found out how pro-illegal alien the Huckster is.


31 posted on 11/21/2007 12:10:48 PM PST by NeoCaveman ("Don't doubt me" - El Rushbo, alternative tagline: Hunter/Pissant 2008)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Captain Kirk
"Since when is a two point gain to 15 percent a “surge.”?

Well, we un-informed folks who see it as a gain of 15% (13% to 15% is a 15.4% increase, for me by taking off both shoes and using all my fingers, too) from previous levels in the poll (simple math, I reckon) as pretty much a surge, but then, we're not as astute as others who are wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more knowledgable than us.

If your "candidate" had a 15% increase in his poll numbers, would you consider that significant?

32 posted on 11/21/2007 12:11:11 PM PST by traditional1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Petronski
"I don’t understand where you got that subtitle."

At "Subtitles 'R' Us" of course.

33 posted on 11/21/2007 12:11:36 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: RockinRight
Fred can take about half of Huckabee’s support and siphon off a little of Mitt’s and Rudy’s and win this thing.

That and a good chunk of the undecided vote makes this very doable for Fred.

34 posted on 11/21/2007 12:12:59 PM PST by Route66 (America's Main Street - - - President Fred D. Thompson /"The Constitution means what is says.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

“It’s all about perception. If Mr. Thompson places third in Iowa, when he isn’t expected to, he will “surge” in South Carolina, Florida and Nevada.”

If Romney places first and Huckabee second, then presumably they will experience even more of a ‘surge’ in those states.


35 posted on 11/21/2007 12:13:36 PM PST by UKTory
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
He’s working on a chart now, he was interrupted since he had to read the latest CYA talking points after that Romney care post and the young couple killed by the guy released by the Democrat Judge Mitt the "Conservative" appointed...
36 posted on 11/21/2007 12:14:03 PM PST by ejonesie22 (Mitt Romney, Republican Conservative?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

What a difference 8 years can make...
this is from January of 2000 NYT:


But Iowans often make up their minds at the last minute, and polls suggest that they have not made their final caucus decisions yet.

‘’Politics is Muzak to a lot of people,’’ said David Yepsen, the chief political reporter for the Des Moines Register. ‘’They don’t pay attention until they have to, and that’s getting later and later. In the governor’s race last year, Tom Vilsack came from 25 points behind in the last three weeks to win by five points.’’

In this year’s Democratic contest, Mr. Bradley, a former senator from New Jersey, has decided to devote all or part of every day until the caucuses to campaigning here. A certain languor still marks his personal style, and he still tries to cast himself as a different kind of politician, who accentuates the positive. One day this week, he bent his 6-foot, 5-inch frame around a lectern and chatted for half an hour with schoolchildren about health.

But Mr. Bradley’s words in other contexts have taken on an edge, whether he is accusing Vice President Gore of neglecting the interests of Iowa farmers, many of whom have been left behind in the Clinton-era boom, or attacking him as a reliable friend of the big tobacco companies.


LOL!


37 posted on 11/21/2007 12:15:14 PM PST by Liberty Valance (Keep a simple manner for a happy life :o)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ejonesie22

He can take all the time he wants, IMO.


38 posted on 11/21/2007 12:15:20 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: UKTory

Huckabee won’t do a think once people realize he’s in no way a conservative.


39 posted on 11/21/2007 12:16:36 PM PST by RockinRight (Just because you're pro-life and talk about God a lot doesn't mean you're a conservative.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Amen...


40 posted on 11/21/2007 12:17:41 PM PST by ejonesie22 (Mitt Romney, Republican Conservative?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

“It’s all about perception. If Mr. Thompson places third in Iowa, when he isn’t expected to, he will “surge” in South Carolina, Florida and Nevada.”

Let me start by stating that I don’t have a candidate yet.
But, if it’s all about perception, then I don’t see how a 3rd place finish helps FDT. The rap on him before he announced was “Just wait till Fred gets in.” He was touted as the 2nd coming, and widely seen as the Saviour for the GOP in 2008. He seems to be trending his expectations down, and the most dedicated FredHead has to have noticed that he hasn’t really been on fire. I’m not saying that he won’t catch on fire, but so far he’s been trending down, and the last week he picked up a key endorsement, and he’s still in 3rd with a couple of point bump. At the same time Huckabee has been gaining. At what point does FDT have to get to the front and stay there, or at least be alone in 2nd place?


41 posted on 11/21/2007 12:18:08 PM PST by snarkybob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
At "Subtitles 'R' Us" of course.

That should be: "Subtitles 'R' Us (Come Get Your Subtitles!)"

42 posted on 11/21/2007 12:18:51 PM PST by kevkrom ("Should government be doing this? And if so, then at what level of government?" - FDT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: traditional1

So, if Hunter goes from 1% to 2% we can call it a “100% surge”?


43 posted on 11/21/2007 12:19:39 PM PST by richmwill
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
This poll is compared to one taken in July (before he even entered into the race). At that time he was in SECOND place now he is in THIRD, with his percentage only going up 2% (within the margin of error). I hardly call that "surging".

If the endorsements and ads are doing their job, their job must be to give support to Mike Huckabee (who is truly surging)

Cheerleading for ones candidate is one thing, and very admirable. Lying in headlines is quite another.

44 posted on 11/21/2007 12:20:14 PM PST by codercpc
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
but, but...FDT, is *insert complaint here*and *insert complaint here*
fwiw, FDT said, *insert complaint here* /sarcasm

GO! FRed GO!

45 posted on 11/21/2007 12:20:31 PM PST by skinkinthegrass (just b/c your paranoid, doesn't mean they're NOT out to get you....Run, Fred, Run. :^)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I thought this was interesting, pretty amazing 19% of voters claim to have met Mitt Romney:

11/18/07
Have met candidate NET 19
Mitt Romney 6
Mike Huckabee 5
John McCain 4
Rudy Giuliani 3
Tom Tancredo 3
Tommy Thompson 2
Duncan Hunter 2
Sam Brownback 2
Ron Paul 1
Fred Thompson 1
Newt Gingrich *
Other 1
No opinion *
Have not met candidate 81
No opinion 0


46 posted on 11/21/2007 12:21:20 PM PST by traviskicks (http://www.neoperspectives.com/Ron_Paul_2008.htm)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: traviskicks

ah, never mind, i take it back, that was ‘net’ total 19% have met someone... whoops.


47 posted on 11/21/2007 12:22:15 PM PST by traviskicks (http://www.neoperspectives.com/Ron_Paul_2008.htm)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 46 | View Replies]

To: richmwill

Call it a miracle!


48 posted on 11/21/2007 12:22:43 PM PST by Reagan Man (FUHGETTABOUTIT Rudy....... Conservatives don't vote for liberals!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies]

To: richmwill
"So, if Hunter goes from 1% to 2% we can call it a “100% surge”?

You would more likely be correct calling it a typo....but, yes, that would be a 100% surge.

For that to occur, the "support" for a candidate who can't win Nationally would not make any difference in the National election, even where he went from the 100,000 in Iowa that favored him, to 200,000, in that case. (Probably more like if 400 here on FR in the poll suddenly went to 800 overnight).

49 posted on 11/21/2007 12:23:10 PM PST by traditional1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies]

To: traditional1
If your "candidate" had a 15% increase in his poll numbers, would you consider that significant?

I dunno. Is that 2% increase in total support within the 5% stated margin of error for the poll?

Pretty sure it is.

50 posted on 11/21/2007 12:23:14 PM PST by Dog Gone
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-129 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson