Examining the Newly-Finalized Calendar

The Campaign Spot - NRO ^ | November 23, 2007 | Jim Geraghty

[Federalist Patriot]

Examining the Newly-Finalized Calendar

So we have a finalized schedule for Republicans: Iowa caucuses January 3, New Hampshire January 8, Michigan now January 15, South Carolina January 19, with Florida January 29 and the Super-Duper Tuesday February 5.

Wyoming has its caucus January 5; whether anybody pays much attention remains to be seen.

A McCain fan makes a pretty compelling case that the new schedule is good for his man: “McCain’s a proven vote getter in New Hampshire and Michigan and has  strong organization in South Carolina.” He’s not worried about how his man is doing in Iowa.

My Romney guy sends a detailed case that the schedule is built for his man, very persuasive in some areas, less so in others. His take:

It seems to me that if you're not part of the "story" coming out of Iowa, it will be darn near impossible to get a word in edgewise in New Hampshire in the short time available. Without Michigan on the calendar, you might think that a southern candidate or two could stage a comeback in South Carolina. But now there's a big, expensive state on the calendar before SC. So if you're Fred or Huck, you really have to finish second, or an extremely close third, in Iowa, then at least hold that position in NH and MI, before the race turns south. Tough to do if you're not extremely well funded, which neither seem to be or likely to become. Both those guys have essentially the same path to the nomination...and both assume that the race narrows down to them vs Rudy — and gets narrowed down before their money runs out.

If you're Rudy, the MI thing makes it an even more complicated — but more clearly focused — path. Rudy has to beat Mitt in either Iowa or NH to win. If Mitt wins Iowa, Wyoming and New Hampshire, it doesn't seem likely that either Nevada or Michigan are the place that Rudy makes the big comeback, and if it's not there, it's probably not going to be South Carolina. So somehow, after going 0-6, Rudy would have to rather implausibly come roaring back in Florida, sweep the 2/5 states, and pretty much run the table after that. So for Rudy, it's simply imperative that somebody beats Mitt in Iowa, and that Rudy then wins New Hampshire, rolls through Michigan, survives South Carolina (maybe he's allowed to finish second or a tight third against someone who is a walking wounded southern candidate), and then begins the big sweep
in Florida.

If you're McCain, step 1 is apparently to settle internally on a strategy, which they don't seem to have done. They don't seem fully committed to Iowa, but they haven't fully withdrawn either. But for him, the plan has to be to start winning in New Hampshire, have Huck, Fred and Mitt all fall by the wayside in Michigan, and then win a one- on-one on-the-cheap cage match with Rudy.

With all that said, the only two really plausible paths to the nomination are for Mitt and Rudy, the two best funded candidates. If New Hampshire were more naturally friendly to the Huckabee or Thompson style, I'd say they have a strong chance to leverage momentum out of Iowa, but it seems like a tough place for them to try to make their move, and if they fail there, I don't see where the money comes from to fuel the rest of their scenario.

I think Iowa and New Hampshire are turning into these twin three-man races, with Mitt the only player in both. In the great state of Ethanolopolis, it's Romney vs. the surging Huckabee and a question of whether Thompson performs respectably. Neither one of those guys is really playing in New Hampshire, and Giuliani and McCain aren't really putting many eggs in their Iowa basket.

I think in the scenarios described by my Romney guy above, a close second is almost as good as a win in most cases. If Giuliani performs close to Romney in New Hampshire, it keeps him alive until Florida. I think Thompson would have to perform really badly for him not to be a player in South Carolina, and if he wins that, he's still in it in Florida. McCain would have to perform really badly in New Hampshire to not have at least some shot in South Carolina.

One exception to my "close second" theory is Huckabee. He seems to be enjoying a well-timed surge, but unless he wins Iowa, he risks becoming John Podhoretz's "Republican Guy Who Is Coming Out of Nowhere to Place a Surprising Second in Iowa," a role JPod contends has been played in previous cycles by Pat Robertson, Pat Buchanan, and Steve Forbes. In other words, he gets one more news cycle of good press and then fades quickly.

Having said all that, if each win begets another bump in the polls, it's not unthinkable to see Romney win Iowa, win Wyoming (for whatever that's worth), win New Hampshire, win Michigan, win South Carolina by a hair, and then go into Florida with a very hot hand...

[Popman]

McCain.......But for him, the plan has to be to start winning in New Hampshire, have Huck, Fred and Mitt all fall by the wayside in Michigan, and then win a one- on-one on-the-cheap cage match with Rudy.

O.K. who's putting the acid (LSD) into McCain's spokesman iced tea.