He has much ground to make up. In the early primaries, when momentum does count, he is not in the lead anywhere except for maybe tied in South Carolina.
Romney and Huckabee have Iowa, Romney has New Hampshire, and is at least tied (some polls say ahead) in South Carolina, Michigan has Rudy, and Romney second,Florida has Rudy, and then we go into Super Tuesday, which Rudy dominates in the delegate rich states.
Unless things change drastically in the next month, (and we all know that they could) I do not see a feasible path to victory for Fred, despite his 2nd place national lead.
Can anyone give me a feasible path to victory?
I know many complain (maybe rightfully so) about the MSM seemingly downgrading Freds chances, but they realize that victory can only come through primaries, and if you don't lead in any of the early states money, and support historically dry up.
The democrats allies in the MSM, including Fox News, are attempting to split the conservative vote, so their favored RINO candidate(s) can emerge victorious. That is why they continue to attack Fred and ignore Duncan Hunter altogether.
“Can anyone give me a feasible path to victory?”
You’ve got to take into consideration the inaccuracy of the polling data. If you think the exit polls of 04 were skewed, just wait. I believe Fred will do better than expected in all races.
Regarding the polls, although Fred is still narrowly in second place on the RCP rolling average of national GOP polls, he is only a few points ahead of Romney and McCain there, so it may really be a statistical three-way tie for second place nationally. It also looks like Fred has lost nearly half his national support in the last few months.
I don't know what the scenario would be for a Fred victory at this point, but finishing third in Iowa really does seem important for Fred now. I suppose that is why Fred went after Giuliani this weekend, since Giuliani is now in third and slightly ahead of Fred in Iowa on the RCP poll average for Iowa.
Previously I think the conventional wisdom was that Fred could afford to write off Iowa. Now Fred seems to really need third-place (the coach fare ticket) out of Iowa.
Absolutely. Stay on topic, keep refining his proposals to solve the nations problems, andlet the two "leaders" destroy each other with petty bickering and back stabbing, then appear in the final two weeks with a now well polished and refined platform making the other two look like bickering idiots who don't have a clear platform outlining how they are going to handle the problems the nation is facing.
Who in the hell says these candidates have these states when there hasn’t been one vote as of yet? It was all but assured that Howard Dean had it locked up but we saw how that turned up. And if I recall correctly, didn’t H.W. Bush win Iowa back in 80 and was talking about the big mo, and then Reagan cleaned his clock? The last several elections, everyone cites the poles, and then it turns out different. This time will be no exception.