IMO, on February 6, we will know ...
Other than sturm and drang, Iowa and NH are just a blip.
So we will have a liberal, no matter what party wins.
the early super Tuesday this year...and all of the extra states participating, virtually negates IA and NH in their importance relative to past cycles.
There are only three players on the larger stage: Fred, Rudy and Hillary. Look for Fred to take SC and energize his campaign. Rudy has always been well positioned to do very well on Feb 5th.
Huckabee doesn't have the money, McCain doesn't have the new-car smell and Romney doesn't have the traction to play with the big dogs.
Sure, things could change a lot from now until IA...but there's not much time after IA to change much of anything.
I expect Huckabee to end up backing Fred, and McCain will back Rudy BEFORE Feb 5th. In a 3-man race on Feb 5th, I expect Rudy to take about 3/5 of the delegates, Fred the other 40% (but only if he wins SC outright with 50+%) and that Romney will go home nearly empty-handed except for Utah.
However it does shake out I don't see more than two men standing after Feb 5th...and Rudy is strong enuff to have it nearly locked up by then.