[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: Once again, proof that Secretary of State Rice is
clueless when it comes to what the Palestinian street (or for that matter
Israeli street) actually thinks - rpeeated below is the most recept poll of
Palestinians followed by the most recent poll of Israelis.]
#1 Poll No.163 (The most recent poll of Palestinians prepared by Dr. Nabil
Kukali on Annapolis Middle East Peace Conference) Poll No.163
25 November, 2007 The most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali on Annapolis Middle East
Peace Conference revealed that: (67.6 %) support to various degrees the participation of the Palestinian
leadership in Annapolis Middle East Peace Conference.
(68.2 %) oppose the waiver of the Right of Return.
(54.4 %) believe that the failure of Annapolis Conference would lead to
instability and turmoil in the region.
(58.6 %) believe that Ehud Olmert is not seeking a genuine peace with the
Palestinians.
(59.0 %) oppose the further station of the Israeli army in the Jordan
Valley.
In the most recent public opinion poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and
conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) during the
period from October 27th to November 6th, 2007, a random sample of 1200
Palestinian adults (over 18 years old), representing the various demographic
specimen of the Palestinian society in the West Bank, including East
Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip, was face-to-face interviewed. The most
significant finding was that only half of the Palestinians, specifically
(51.0 %), support the Palestinian Authority to launch negotiations for
permanent peace deal with Israel. Dr. Nabil Kukali, in his capacity as founder and director of PCPO, said that
one of the most important results of the poll was that (54.4 %) of the
Palestinians believe that the failure of Annapolis Middle East Peace
Conference would lead to malignant consequences for the whole region and
that there would be no other opportunities to start a new initiative in the
foreseeable future. He added that the Palestinian public is aware of the
importance of the Palestinian participation in this conference since (68 %)
are supporting the Palestinian Authority to take part. Dr. Kukali further
suggested that there is a conservative, cautious optimism for the success of
this conference. The outcome shows, generally, that the Palestinians still
stick to their national immovable issues such as the right of return, no
relinquishment of any territories in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and the
issue of Jerusalem and the holy sites. In conclusion Dr. Kukali said that
the US administration has to prove its determination of ending the
Arab-Israeli conflict by exerting more pressure on the Israeli side to
implement the UN resolutions on the issues of the final solution, as well as
the Arab Initiative adopted by the Arab League. All interviews took place on the basis of random choices of respondent's
homes, i.e. face to face", Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research
& Studies Section at the PCPO, said. The choices were takes from a total of
(125) election sites. These election sites are randomly chosen by using the
method of the simple random sample. These sites in turn were the beginning
of the random sample choice made from those regions in accordance with
PCPO's
long experienced methodology. The sampling error throughout the survey is
found at (+/- 2.83%). Elias Kukali added "the percentage of female
respondents
was (48.9%) whereas that of the male respondents reached (51.1%). He said
that the composition of the sample according to the type of residence was as
follows: (51.3%) city, (31.5%) village, (17.2%) refugee camp. Elias Kukali
added that the distribution of the random sample among the residential areas
of the respondents was (63.4%) in the West Bank, incl. East Jerusalem, and
(36.6%) in Gaza Strip.
Dr. Kukali said the results of the poll were as follows: Up to which extent do you agree to or oppose each of the following items
should there be in the near future a public referendum on a peace agreement
with the Israelis?
West Bank and Gaza Strip:
01) Israel would keep 4 % of the West Bank and Gaza Strip area, which
contains 80% of the Israeli settlements. As an exchange for that, Israel
would offer the Palestinians 2% of its land adjacent to Gaza Strip. Would
you support or oppose this deal?
ResponsePercent
1. Support.21.2
2. Oppose.72.2
3. Don't know.6.6 East Jerusalem:
02) Living quarters inhabited by Arabs in East Jerusalem should be put
under the Palestinian jurisdiction, the Jewish quarters to be annexed to
Israel. Would you support or oppose this?
ResponsePercent
1. Support.40.6
2. Oppose.52.7
3. No opinion.6.7 The Old City of Jerusalem:
03) Upon dividing the Old City of Jerusalem between Israel and the
Palestinians, Israel would keep the "Wailing Wall" (Western Wall), the
Jewish and the Armenian quarters. A special arrangement would be made for
the area of the Temple Mount (area of Al-Aqsa Mosque). Would you support or
oppose this? ResponsePercent
1. Support.18.7
2. Oppose.72.5
3. Don't know.8.8 Jordan Valley:
04) The Israeli settlements in Jordan Valley would be dismantled, but the
Israeli army would remain in the Jordan Valley area for the period of five
years, after which- should calm reigns over the said region during this
period- the Israeli forces would be replaced by international forces. Would
you support or oppose this?
ResponsePercent
1. Support.31.3
2. Oppose.59.0
3. No opinion.9.7 The right of home-return:
05) Presuming that the Palestinian State would take up the Palestinian
refugees. Israel, with other countries, would establish an international
fund for the compensation of those refugees, who want to return under the
Palestinian jurisdiction and can't return to their original homeland in
Israel. Would you support or oppose such a settlement of the Palestinian
refugees problem?
ResponsePercent
1. Support.23.5
2. Oppose.68.2
3. Don't know.8.3 06) If the government of Ehud Olmert would present a declaration of
principles for a peace deal after 4 - 5 months, and this declaration of
principles would contain all the items you have agreed to beforehand. Would
you then support or oppose such a peace deal?
ResponsePercent
1. Support.27.6
2. Somewhat support.34.3
3. Somewhat oppose.21.0
4. Oppose.14.5
5. Don't know.2.6
07) The US-government is planning to hold an international peace conference
in Annapolis / USA after one or two months with the target to advance peace
between Israel on the one side and the Palestinians and the Arab countries
on the other side. Do you think this conference will succeed or fail to
achieve peace between Israel and the Palestinians?
ResponsePercent
1. Will certainly succeed.12.0
2. Will somewhat succeed.38.0
3. Will certainly fail.34.4
4. Will somewhat fail.11.9
5. Dont know.3.7 08) Which of the two routes the Palestinian Authority must pursue at the
coming Annapolis Conference: Negotiations for a permanent peace or general
principles for subsequent negotiations?
ResponsePercent
1. Negotiations for a permanent peace.50.8
2. Only general principles for subsequent negotiations.35.2
3. Not to attend the conference.14.0 09) Is it necessary - according to your opinion - that the Palestinian
Authority enters into permanent peace negotiations with Ehud Olmert right
now or are these negotiations already too late?
ResponsePercent
1. Certainly possible.5.5
2. Possible.43.3
3. Not possible.26.5
4. Certainly not possible.22.4
5. Dont know.2.3 10) Do you think it's possible or not possible to reach a peace settlement
with the Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the leaders of Kadima and
Labor Party?
ResponsePercent
1. Certainly possible.8.5
2. Possible.43.1
3. Not possible.28.9
4. Certainly not possible.18.0
5. Dont know.1.4 11) Do you think the Israeli PM Ehud Olmert is seeking a genuine peace with
the Palestinians, or not?
ResponsePercent
1. He certainly does.6.0
2. I guess he does.35.3
3. I guess he doesn't.37.3
4. He certainly doesn't21.4 14) Do you support, or not, the participation of the Palestinian leadership
in the Annapolis International Middle East Peace Conference to be held in
the coming few weeks?
ResponsePercent
1. Yes, I strongly support.18.5
2. Yes, I somewhat support.49.1
3. No, I somewhat oppose.15.6
4. No, I strongly oppose.15.5
5. I don't know.1.3 15) Do you think that the failure of Annapolis International Peace
Conference would lead to the destabilization of the Palestinian Territories?
ResponsePercent
1. Yes, I think so.22.6
2. Yes, I think it's likely.31.8
3. No, I don't think so.38.3
4. I don't know.7.3 16) Do you think that the failure of Annapolis International Peace
Conference would lead to the resignation of the PA President, Mr. Mahmoud
Abbas, and to the fall of Mr. Salam Fayyad's government?
ResponsePercent
1. Yes, I think so.17.5
2. No, I don't think so.64.9
3. I don't know.17.6 17) What do you think are the success chances of the coming international
conference regarding the Palestinian - Israeli conflict? (Give your answer
in % from 1 - 100%) Open question: 39.7 % Contact Persons: Dr. Nabil Kukali & Elias Kukali
Tel: 00970 2 277 4846, Fax: 00970 2 277 4892
Mobile: 00970 599 726 878
P.O. Box 15, Beit Sahour - Palestine
Email: kukali@p-ol.com
Website: www.pcpo.ps
====================
#2 Poll of Israelis Telephone poll of a representative sample of 500 adult Israelis (including
Arab Israelis) carried out by Dahaf for Yediot Ahronot the week of 23
November 2007 and published on 23 November - the week before the conference
in Annapolis. Should borders, Jerusalem and the right of return be negotiated already at
the start of the talks?
Yes 35% No 63% Should Israel agree to the evacuation of most of settlements in Judea and
Samaria?
No 55% Yes 40% Will there be a new wave of attacks after the conference?
Yes 52% No 36% Do you support the participation of the Syrians at the Annapolis conference?
Support 57% oppose 37% Should Israel negotiate with the Syrians?
Yes 70% No 29% [IMRA: Hats off to Dahaf for asking the correct question - it "peace
agreement" - not "peace"]
Are you prepared to give up on the Golan in a peace agreement with the
Syrians?
Yes 27% No 70% Do you support the holding of the Annapolis conference
For 69% Against 27% Will the conference advance Israeli-Palestinians peace
Yes 22% No 71% Can a peace agreement be reached with the Palestinians in 2008?
Yes 17% No 82% Should the Palestinians be required to recognize Israel as a Jewish state as
a condition for negotiations?
Yes 25% No 75% Should Israel make more gestures to the Palestinians, in order to strengthen
Abu Mazen [AL: aka Mahmoud Abbas]
Yes 31% No 66% Do you count on the USA as a fair intermediary in negotiations?
Yes 56% No 41% On the eve of Annapolis, do you have confidence in the three leaders of the
Government?
Olmert: Yes 24% No 75%
Barak Yes 29% No 68%
Livni Yes 52% No 44%
The entire leadership: Yes 27% No 69% |