The Wolverine Primary (Good News for Romney and Clinton)

Wall Street Journal ^ | 11/26/07 | John Fund

[Reaganesque]

What if we look back on the 2008 presidential nomination contests and conclude one or both were effectively decided by a single vote--and among a group of judges at that?

Democratic partisans still argue that the 2000 presidential contest was decided by a single vote in the U.S. Supreme Court, even though media recounts of Florida ballots showed that the outcome would not have been changed if Bush v. Gore had gone the other way. But there's no doubt that a 4-3 ruling by the Michigan Supreme Court last Wednesday saved that state's Jan. 15 presidential primary, which was in danger of being scrapped over a dispute about whether it adhered to the state constitution. The winners are likely to be Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton

Mr. Romney pushed hard for an early primary because he has a natural advantage in Michigan. He was born in Detroit, and elderly voters still fondly remember George Romney, his father, who served as governor in the 1960s. Mr. Romney is counting on winning Iowa on Jan. 3--he has more paid workers there than all the other GOP candidates put together--and he plans to use his advantage as a former governor of next-door Massachusetts to win New Hampshire's Jan. 8 primary. Winning Michigan would then give Mr. Romney three straight victories before the critical Jan. 19 South Carolina primary.

Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton is for now the only leading Democratic candidate to appear on Michigan's ballot. The other top-tier contenders withdrew, following the guidance of the Democratic National Committee, which is threatening to take away Michigan's delegates because it is scheduling a primary against the party's rules...Mrs. Clinton may pick up some momentum, a publicity bounce and some delegates to boot by exerting almost no effort.

[Reaganesque]

Mitt Ping!

• Send FReep Mail to Unmarked Package to get [ON] or [OFF] the Mitt Romney Ping List •

[napscoordinator]

Wow! Hillary the only one on the ballot. ROTFLMAO! The others should have risked having the delagates taken away.

[codercpc]

I think that a win, or a close 2nd in Michigan will make this a true two person race between Romney and Giuliani. If this happens, I just don’t see a scenario that Thompson, or even McCain could get the momentum needed to surpass either man.

But according to realclearpolitics, Romney has not been in the lead in Michigan since early September. I wonder if they have better internal polls than we have seen.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_republican_primary-237.html

[sergeantdave]

Tens of thousands of productive citizens are fleeing the wolverine state as the communist goverrnor, Jennifer Granholm, institutes policies to destroy businesses and jobs, ruin the realty market and expand the socialist welfare state.

As the productive citizens leave, handing the state over to welfare bums, crooked politicians and bureaucrats and retirees sucking off the public teat, it sets up an easy win in Michigan for hillary in Nov., 2008. She won’t need to spend much in Michigan and can use her illegally gathered money elsewhere.

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

The Wolverine Primary (Good News for Romney and Clinton)

Really, really bad news for America.

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

Just like Hillaromney and Mass.

[claudiustg]

-—Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton is for now the only leading Democratic candidate to appear on Michigan’s ballot. The other top-tier contenders withdrew, following the guidance of the Democratic National Committee, which is threatening to take away Michigan’s delegates because it is scheduling a primary against the party’s rules...-—

The DNC winning hearts and minds in Michigan!

[-=SoylentSquirrel=-]

Did somebody yell "Wolverines!"?

[SoConPubbie]

I think that a win, or a close 2nd in Michigan will make this a true two person race between Romney and Giuliani.

Huh?

How you can see Michigan as some type of decision point in this race is way beyond me.

Also, since most national polls have Thompson in second, the idea, at this point, that the race will shake out between Romney and Rudy is laughable and not supported by the facts right now!

[codercpc]

As I explained, I think that if Mitt Romney sweeps the early primaries, he will be difficult to stop for anyone but Rudy, who is leading in big states on Super Tuesday. The end result of all primaries are delegates. And I just don’t see where Fred, or any other Republican has the numbers.
Fred is no longer in 2nd place in the national poll (Rasmussen, which we were told over and over again was the most accurate). He is now tied for FOURTH (with McCain).

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll As you can see at the link, my "idea" is "supported by facts right now!"

[LexBaird]

Also, since most national polls have Thompson in second

Yeah, that's likely to become vitally important on National Primary Election day...

The trouble with national polls is that they reflect the population at large. Since several of the large pop states are "winner take all" primaries, second place means nothing. You can only win the nomination state by state.

Also, the delegates are loaded toward "red" states, with traditionally Republican states getting more than their population would strictly apportion. Third, some of the large states, like TX, won't vote until later in the season, by which time several candidates currently splitting the "not Guliani" vote will have dropped. That will render the current rankings meaningless at the time TX votes, for example.

[mission9]

Rassmussen has Romney in 2nd place, Thompson is tied with McCain at 12%. The more Fred campaigns, the lower he goes. Have you seen him campaign yet? He is much better on youtube. It is going to be a lot easier to keep Mitt conservative, than to make Fred a credible campaigner. Holding Mitt accountable to conservatism will work, because conservatism works every time its tried. Making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear requires a divine miracle, that even Jesus balks at.

[tantiboh]

~”I think that a win, or a close 2nd in Michigan will make this a true two person race between Romney and Giuliani.”~

I agree, with the caveat that Romney -must- beat Huckabee in Iowa. If Huckabee pulls off an upset, it will derail Romney and ensure a Giuliani nomination.

~”But according to realclearpolitics, Romney has not been in the lead in Michigan since early September.”~

Here’s another resource you might find useful:
http://www.pollster.com/08-MI-Rep-Pres-Primary.php

According to that chart, Romney is slightly behind Giuliani, but Giuliani is going down while Romney is going up. If Romney takes IA and NH, he’ll get a bounce that should ensure his victory in MI, as well as SC.

If he pulls that off, he’ll have excellent chances in FL, and the buzz from that should propel him to a resounding victory on Feb. 5th.

Romney has played a high-risk, high-reward game, but, with a couple of remaining hurdles, he appears to be pulling it off.

[tantiboh]

~”Also, since most national polls have Thompson in second, the idea, at this point, that the race will shake out between Romney and Rudy is laughable and not supported by the facts right now!”~

The chance that Thompson has a snowball’s chance in Hell right now is laughable and is not supported by the facts.

There shall be great weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth on FR as that reality becomes apparent in the next few weeks.

[WFTR]

The other side of the coin is that Michigan goes from having 60 delegates to having only 30 delegates. If Michigan had sixty delegates, Mitt Romney might have received anywhere from 30 to 55 of those delegates. John McCain did well in Michigan in 2000, and he might have won most of the rest of those delegates. In that scenario, Michigan would have allowed Mr. Romney to pick up a net of +20 or +25 delegates over the other candidates. In the current scenario, Mr. Romney may pick up a net of only ten or fifteen delegates. If the race is close, the other delegates could be important.

While I like the idea of Mr. Romney getting momentum, a later Michigan primary might have served him better. He'll still need to put resources into the Michigan race to be certain that he wins strongly, and the Michigan momentum may not translate to Florida. Ultimately, he still has to do very well in Florida to be a serious candidate going into February 5.

Bill