Don't Fear The Weaker Dollar -- It's Keeping The Economy Afloat

Investor's Business Daily ^ | November 30, 2007

[expat_panama]

the Alternate Data Series tab here, reflects the CPI as if it were calculated using the methodologies in place in 1980.

That's what Williams says, but he won't part with the numbers unless you send him $90, and he won't show his calculations at any price.  My guess is that he doesn't have calculations, he fudged everything.

 

Fudging is easy --anyone can do it, even Williams; coming up with something that's useful is hard.  There're lots of way's of calculating inflation; if you want to know how prices for urban consumers are going then the CPI works fine.  If you're looking at everyone else's buying too then you want the PCE.  It goes on and on.  The thing with Williams' $90 wonder is what good is it?   It won't help you plan costs for hiring new workers like the ECI will, it won't tell you what last quarter's change in the gdp is like the gdp-deflator will.  It's useless other then for whining and complaining.

[expat_panama]

post 3 "...Which "U.S. goods?"  Big Mac's?   Seriously."   post 87  "...8% of GDP is goods exported...   ...what goods is a very very good question"

If US exports is 8% of its GDP, then it's not "a very very good question" to ask if we export $1.1 trillion in Big Macs.  You can say you're serious and you can say it's a good question, but $1.1 trillion in Big Mac exports is idiotic.

post 141 "..BEA statistics show that exported manufactured goods only account for 2.8%...."   post 153 "...Bureau of Economic Analysis post 87."

You've got it going from 8% in post 87 to 2.8% in post 141, and neither number has anything to do with GDP numbers for this year --we're now exporting more than we import.

[aroundabout]

And so it will be into the foreseeable future, much to the regret of “Dingy” Harry and “Botox” Nancy.

[AndyJackson]

You've got it going from 8% in post 87 to 2.8% in post 141.

Correct. I was typing too fast. The number is 8%. However, here is the most recent BEA report on balance of payments.

From the report "The deficit on goods and services increased slightly to $177.7 billion in the second quarter from $177.6 billion in the first. ...The deficit on goods increased to $204.2 billion in the second quarter from $200.9 billion in the first."

[expat_panama]

"now exporting more than we import."

OOPS!   From the BEA:

	2007		Change:
	I r	II p	I-II
1  Exports of goods and services and income receipts......................................	558,369	586,698	28,329
18  Imports of goods and services and income payments......................................	-728,472	-755,031	-26,559

Now importing more than we export.  It's the gap that's less.

[Vet_6780]

I don't trust govt inflation numbers.

I use a consistent methodology like the Continuous Commodities Index, an unweighted (ie unmanipulated) measure of inflation dating back to 1957.