The measure of upward mobility potential for a candidate is the RATIO of his favorable to unfavorable ratings.
From the Gallup Poll cited above, in the order of each candidate’s potential for upward mobility as more Americans are exposed to him:
Huckabee.....33-16....2.1 ratio positive-to-negative
McCain........55-30....1.8
Thompson.....39-26....1.5
Giuliani.........52-37....1.4
Romney........36-30....1.2
By this measure, Huckabee has the highest potential to rise higher in the polls as his name I.D. and public exposure increase, while Romney has the lowest such potential.
In practical terms, when people hear and see Huckabee’s comments and views and demeanor, by a 2-to-1 margin, they like him. And that 2-to-1 ratio can be expected to be the reaction of voters who are not yet familiar with him. This is especially true given that Huckabee has the largest percentage of the electorate who still have never heard of or been exposed to him. In other words, as more voters are exposed to him, he has the greatest potential to climb even higher, followed by McCain.
The others, especially Romney and Rudy, have the opposite problem. Their high name I.D. based on celebrity and millions of dollars in T.V. ads means the electorate knows them and now doesn’t like them. That too can reasonably be expected to be the reaction of the smaller number of voters who haven’t been exposed to them. And thus, lower upward mobility potential.
Simple reason:
Huckabee has not been a serious candidate, so has not been vetted seriously. Most people do not know about his working to free rapist Dumond, his wanting to close Gitmo, his tax-and-spend record as Governor, and his previous support for DREAM Act in-state tuition for illegals and his lambasting opponents of it as unChristian.
Romney was a more conservative Governor than he was.
Huckabee talks like he’s Mr prolife, but his position is no different from Fred Thompson. Huckabee even was on the side of watering down the 1996 platform. Thompson has done more for prolife and done more for tax reform than he has in 10 years as a tax-and-spend RINO Gov.
This leaves aside his pandering to unions, his support for cap-and-trade CO2, etc. Frankly, he’s a much bigger RINO than the other so-called RINOs, Romney, McCain, and certainly not as conservative as Thompson.
So a populist southern Baptist. How is that different from Carter or Clinton?
And when the GOP primary voters get to know the real Huckabee, would they still have the same view? I think not.