I hope you’re right. I’m not keen on Gov. Huckabee. Although he’s currently talking more like a conservative, his record is pretty mixed, except for the issue of life.
And my own view is that Gov. Romney is a fraud.
I think that Gov. Huckabee may do very well in Iowa and New Hampshire, but it may not matter much. Only candidates with bucks in the bank will be able to move ahead. That certainly includes Mr. Romney. Sen. Thompson and Mr. Giuliani both had good 3rd quarters, and extrapolating from that, likely will be able to continue forth from Iowa and New Hampshire.
But Mr. Giuliani is limited to about 20% - 25% of the Republican electorate, and as the field narrows, that’s just not going to do it. Mr. Giuliani gets to go on from Iowa and New Hampshire, but won’t win the nominaton.
Mr. Huckabee didn’t do that well in the 3rd quarter, as I recall, and extrapolating from there, may not have funds going into the new year to continue forth. Since there’s so little time between New Hampshire and “Super Duper” Tuesday, Feb 5, he may not have time to capitalize on good showings in Iowa and New Hampshire.
As well, Mr. Huckabee may be near his peek. I think that he’s currently the darling of those who don’t know him that well, yet, and they’re projecting their own hopes and dreams onto him. This happened to Mr. Thompson back in June, and his poll status got well into the 20%s. Once folks see where Mr. Huckabee stands on a range of issues, he may drop back some - before Iowa and New Hampshire.
Either way, I’m not sure that he’ll have the necessary staying power.
I think that Mr. McCain was just about dead broke, and I don’t see his position improving any.
Ultimately, I think that the nomination fight will be between Mr. Romney and either Mr. Thompson or Mr. Huckabee. My hopes (and my money) are on Mr. Thompson.
sitetest
Good analysis, and I would agree.
Let me make another point as well. I know that you and I have had disagreements in the past regarding some issues, but I think we have converged on this point.
Some would say that Huckabee, being (arguably) the most Christian and (arguably) most socially conservative he’s the best choice. I disagree. I believe this is the most blessed nation in the world, for a reason. If we let it become a socialist hellhole, it will no longer be that. If God has indeed blessed this nation, He wants us to protect it, right?
Mike Huckabee is the MSM flavor of the weak.( tag-line for sale)
Even if he can win Iowa it wont help him though.
He will be flat broke with no time to raise money. The primaries that follow wont leave him time to do it.
Grassroots nickles and dimes wont get there fast enough. Only big money power brokers can inject lots of $$ in a hurry.
They would never support Huck.
See my post 61. I have the same conclusion.