Analyzing the Huckabee Appeal
How the Drive-By Media Attempts to Influence Both Party Primaries
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Posted on 12/04/2007 8:18:30 AM PST by GOPGuide
With less than a month to go before the Iowa caucuses, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that Rudy Giuliani has fallen back in the pack in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Giuliani’s support has fallen to 18% and four other candidates are within six percentage points of the lead. Mike Huckabee is enjoying an amazing surge and now shares the top spot with Giuliani at 18%. Close behind are John McCain at 14%, Fred Thompson at 13%, and Mitt Romney at 12%. Ron Paul attracts 7% of Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide and no other Republican candidate reaches 2% (see recent daily numbers).
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Clinton continues to lose ground as well. The former First Lady now attracts 35% of the vote, down from 41% a week ago and 43% two weeks ago. Today’s result matches the lowest level of support recorded for Clinton since Rasmussen Reports began daily tracking in mid-July (see recent daily numbers).
While Clinton has lost ground, Barack Obama’s support remains steady at 23%. John Edwards gained two points on Tuesday to 17% while Bill Richardson is the top choice for 7% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters nationwide. No other Democratic candidate tops 3% (see recent daily numbers).
Results for the Presidential Tracking Poll are obtained through nightly telephone interviews and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Next update scheduled for Wednesday at 11:00 a.m. Eastern.
Among the GOP candidates, it’s hard to know which trend line is the most significant—the decline of Giuliani’s support, the Huckabee surge, or the McCain comeback.
It remains unclear whether the current round of Huck-a-mania is nothing more than Mike Huckabee’s fifteen minutes of fame of if the former Arkansas Governor has a serious chance of winning the Republican nomination. But, there is no doubt that he has shaken up the race-- Huckabee is also a frontrunner in Iowa, essentially tied for second in New Hampshire, and has pulled to within a single percentage point of Hillary Clinton in a general election match-up. On Wednesday, Rasmussen Reports will release data on a Huckabee-Clinton match-up in Arkansas. Later in the week, new polling data for the South Carolina primary will be released.
For the Democrats, polling in Iowa continues to show a toss-up between Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. Clinton still leads in New Hampshire but her lead has declined to single digits. Nationally, just 24% think that Iowa and New Hampshire voters are “lucky” to vote first. Nearly twice as many believe the state’s voters are unlucky because they have to put up with all the campaigning during the holiday season.
Today, Rasmussen Reports has released new state polling data showing Colorado to be very competitive in the 2008 Presidential election. That state’s Senate race between Bob Schaffer (R) and Mark Udall (D) is also a toss-up. In Arizona, the big story is John McCain’s comeback. His favorable ratings fell below the 50% mark during the Senate debate on immigration but he is now back in much more comfortable territory.
Rudy Giuliani is still seen as the most electable Republican. McCain, Romney, and Huckabee are essentially tied for second in this category.
Seventy-three percent (73%) of Democrats believe that Clinton is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. That’s down from 81% a month ago. Sixty-six percent (66%) believe Obama is at least somewhat likely to win it all and 58% say the same about Edwards.
See Rasmussen Reports general election match-ups and other key stats for all Republican and Democratic candidates.
The Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily. Today is the first day of regular weekend updates.
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 750 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
This is Rudith's lowest point in Rasmussen ever. Rasmussen's polls do predict the trend a candidate is heading in.
Sorry about mispelling “nationally”.
:(
Rudolph the Red-handed Grifter is a loser for the GOP.
You’l get whacked on the knuckles with a ruler.
I think Huckabee is going to keep him alive for a little longer.
Rudy’s mistress graft stories should be killing him.
Huckabee just damaged his chances on Fox News saying that he would close Guantanamo Prison if made President.
His reason: To restore America’s prestige in the eyes of the world.
Sounds like a Dem when he uses the prestige reason. He also says Guantanamo is doing the country more harm than good.
This is a huge mistake on his part.
No, Huckabee is taking Romney out and nothing is stopping Giuliani's free fall. That creates a best-case scenario for Fred Thompson.
I could walk around my office here and ask 25 people what they thought of Mike Huckabee and at least 15 of them would say “who?” People arent paying attention to the election yet, and the “surge” of Huckabee in the press on a national level doesnt hold water with me. He isnt running ads anywhere and he isnt known so how could he suddenly pop into the top spot?
Fred who? Sorry, that’s a nice scenario and hell if you’re right I’ll congratulate you but I just don’t see it happening.
exactly. thompson has no chance. Might have a chance if campaign was given some viagra though.
I don't see Huckabee winning anywhere but perhaps Iowa. I don't think NH voters are suddenly going to get Huck fever.
I can’t see rudy, romney or huck happening either.
Actually the one candidate that the whole country knows is mccain
yeah i agree
mccain may rise to the top, especially if he wins NH
Yeah I can see a few scenarios where McCain (thought dead and forgotten) rises as the compromise candidate. I'd really have to hold my nose...
Call me crazy, but I have been predicting McCain to be the nominee.
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