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You Will Control 25% of Entertainment by 2012

Posted by John Kullman

Nokia’s latest study, ‘A Glimpse of the Next Episode’, predicts that within five years a quarter of all entertainment will be created, edited and shared within peer groups rather than coming out of traditional media groups. Trend-setting consumers from 17 countries were asked about their digital behaviors and lifestyles. Nokia also used information gathered from its 900 million customers and views of leading industry figures to reach the conclusion that you will control 25% of the world’s entertainment by 2012.

“From our research we predict that up to a quarter of the entertainment being consumed in five years will be what we call ‘Circular’. The trends we are seeing show us that people will have a genuine desire not only to create and share their own content, but also to remix it, mash it up and pass it on within their peer groups - a form of collaborative social
media,” said Mark Selby, Vice President, Multimedia, Nokia.

Nokia also looked at four emerging trends that will make entertainment more collaborative and creative as we move towards Circular Entertainment. These trends are listed as, Immersive Living; Geek Culture; G Tech and Localism.

Immersive Living is the rise of lifestyles which blur the reality of being on and offline. Entertainment will no longer be segmented; people can access and create it wherever they are.

My favorite is Geek Culture. (I always wanted to be a Geek but I didn’t fit in.) This triumph marks a shift as consumers become hungry for more sophisticated entertainment. As Geek Culture rises, consumers will want to be recognized and rewarded - the boundaries between being commercial and creative will blur.

G Tech is an existing social force in Asia that will change the way entertainment will look. Forget pink and sparkly, it is about the feminization of technology that is currently underway. Entertainment will be more collaborative, democratic, emotional and customized - all of which are ‘female’ traits.

The report uncovered a locally-minded sprit emerging in entertainment consumption and Localism will become a key theme of future entertainment. Consumers will take pride in seeking out the local and home-grown.

The good news about this report is that much of the entertainment will be created and distributed on mobile phones. These are the perfect devices for capturing images and sounds on-the-fly and then editing the content with music and graphics. One person in a peer group may take the pictures, a second edit the sequence of pictures and a third add music before the production is sent to the group as entertainment.

DVD-ISASTER SALES
By BRIAN GARRITY

December 4, 2007 — Just in case Hollywood didn’t have enough to worry about with the writer’s strike, here comes the latest horror to scare Tinseltown: Shrinking DVD sales.
The DVD businesses, one of the movie industry’s biggest sources of profits, is expected to post a year-over-year sales decline for the first time since the format’s rise a decade ago.

DVD sales, which were flat a year ago at around $16 billion, were down over 4 percent through the end of November, and analysts expect a full-year drop of around 2 percent.

Total home video revenues which include sales and rentals of both DVD and VHS are forecasted to come in at around $23 billion down from $24 billion in 2006.

Even though the industry still has a number of heavy hitters on the way, including the latest installments of “Pirates of the Caribbean,” “Bourne” and “Harry Potter,” and the film adaptation of “The Simpsons,” they would have to power a big surge in total DVD unit sales just to break even with last year.

Drew Borst, an analyst with Sanford Bernsetin, notes that barring a heroic quarter, year over year growth could be a stretch.

Even big box office hits aren’t an automatic slam-dunk on DVD. Alan Gould, an analyst with Natixis Bleichroeder, notes that DVD sales for latest sequels in the “Spider-Man,” “Fantastic Four” and “Shrek” franchises, all fourth quarter releases, have come up short.

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