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To: MrB; R W Reactionairy

R W Reactionairy perhaps? On this thread amoung others: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1923136/posts

Care to grace us with your take on the coming oil price plunge RW?


7 posted on 12/04/2007 9:04:16 PM PST by Balding_Eagle (If America falls, darkness will cover the face of the earth for a thousand years.)
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To: Balding_Eagle; MrB
Sure. [I've been traveling lately and did not get a chance to respond earlier.]

Steve Forbes has been quite vocal on this subject and has been consistently wrong for quite a while. From listening to Mr. Forbes it is very clear that he does not understand the flow rate aspects of reservoir mechanics even at the most basic level.

There is , a distinct possibility that oil could go back down and remain below the $50 or $60 dollar level or even lower. However if you think this is what you want, be careful what you hope for. IMO the most likely scenario for that sort of occurrence is an extremely nasty global recession, not a sharp rise in production.

I think the article’s 2 million in new non OPEC production for 2008 is dubious. I did not see a source and assuming a very low decline from existing production, that sort of number would imply more than 5 million in new OPEC and Non OPEC projects.

The number of identified new large projects coming on line in the next few years is not enough to boost excess capacity and may not be enough to keep up with the declines in existing fields. BTW, Right Whale has IIRC declared that peak oil is happening now. I am a little less certain, but as I have written, things do not look good.

24 posted on 12/07/2007 11:39:27 PM PST by R W Reactionairy ("Everyone is entitled to their own opinion ... but not to their own facts" Daniel Patrick Moynihan)
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