If you place any credence at all in this questionable-sourced, custom-ordered-by-Harry Reid, piece of fiction written by political hacks in the State Department — then I guess your thesis might have some merit....
and we might as well play it for the politics, since that may be all the NIE is anyway. Here's the two-fer-- "we did shut down a WMD program, but it was IRAN'S, not Iraq's."