[Texas Federalist]

I cannot for the life of me understand why Fred Thompson polls so low and Duncan Hunter isn't even on the chart!

People want to support a winner. That's why national polls before Iowa, NH and SC are meaningless. Everyone supports the flavor of the day, which usually changes once the primaries begin. For example, John Kerry won NH by 13 points after being down by double digits two weeks prior. This is wide open.

[Charles Martel]

People want to support a winner. That's why national polls before Iowa, NH and SC are meaningless. Everyone supports the flavor of the day, which usually changes once the primaries begin. For example, John Kerry won NH by 13 points after being down by double digits two weeks prior. This is wide open.

I was thinking recently that the colored lines in spiff's tracking charts remind me of the similar colored lines used for the various strike probability models on the hurricane tracking sites.

As the hours and days tick by, the lines zig this way, then zag the other. Most of them end up signifying nothing; ultimately the landfall/election day is all that tells the tale.