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Evidence Grows That Consumers Are Pulling Back
Wall Street Journal ^ | 8 December 2007 | RHONDA L. RUNDLE and KELLY EVANS

Posted on 12/08/2007 8:11:55 AM PST by shrinkermd

...The slowdown was a hot topic at the meeting of the American Society of Plastic Surgeons in Baltimore this fall. One breast-implant maker sees hints of a slowdown in demand. The number of vision-correction surgeries appears to be falling as well. "This whole mortgage credit crisis is making people think twice," said J. Peter Rubin, a Pittsburgh plastic surgeon. "It's something I've noticed and some colleagues have noticed as well."

...The broadest measure of consumer spending, one which includes food, energy and all other goods services, grew at a 2.7% annual pace in the robust third-quarter. Still, forecasters expect a substantial slowing in the current quarter, an important one to retailers depending on holiday sales. Economists at Macroeconomic Advisers, a St. Louis forecasting firm, expect consumer spending to grow a mere 1.1% seasonally adjusted pace in the current quarter.

...Consumers spend more on housing, health care, education, travel, restaurants and other services -- $4.6 trillion last year -- than they do on food, gasoline, clothing, electronics, cars and other goods -- $3.6 trillion. Spending on services such as education and housing tends to be less sensitive to economic swings. But discretionary spending, such as elective medical procedures or airline tickets, is susceptible to cyclical pressure...

...Consumers sound pessimistic. On Friday, the Reuters/University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment reported a decline in early December to a level lower than any month since 1992 -- except for the month following Hurricane Katrina. Gloom among lower-income households more than offset gains in better-off households. The Conference Board's survey is similarly weak.

Besides rising mortgages delinquencies and home foreclosures, delinquencies in the auto-loan market are ticking up to the highest level in several years, and lenders are tightening terms. Student loans are weakening too.

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: consumer; consumerspending; economy; gasprices; mortgage; retail; spending
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Article seems to lack some organization and focus, but the facts and writing are clear. I had a tough time excerpting it.

They begin with plastic surgery as auguring for a declining economy but spend most of the article focusing on recent economic findings. Then they go back to the plastic surgery bit at the end as proof positive of a weakening economy.

Confirmation bias may be their problem, but, then again, early warning signs give an investor a chance to take steps to protect their investments.

1 posted on 12/08/2007 8:11:56 AM PST by shrinkermd
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To: shrinkermd

Education and so many other priorities are sucking the spending from lower priority items.

Someone is going to be hurting.


2 posted on 12/08/2007 8:14:34 AM PST by George from New England
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To: shrinkermd

It’s Bush’s fault. /s


3 posted on 12/08/2007 8:14:38 AM PST by VRW Conspirator ("Nobody goes there anymore; it's too crowded." - Yogi Berra)
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To: shrinkermd

>>>One breast-implant maker sees hints of a slowdown in demand. The number of vision-correction surgeries appears to be falling as well.

To summarize, Boob jobs sag as Vision-correction customers lose focus.


4 posted on 12/08/2007 8:15:15 AM PST by tlb
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To: shrinkermd
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/indexes/rasmussen_consumer_index

Interesting, these numbers would indicate the decline in Consumer Confidence bottomed out in Nov and have been steadily climbing the 1st part of Dec.

5 posted on 12/08/2007 8:15:44 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Hillary Clinton has never done one thing right. She thinks that qualifies her to be President?)
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To: shrinkermd

It’s hard to keep spending when your credit cards are maxed out. Telling sign that most of American retail companies - GE included - make more profit on debt instuments and credit cards than they do on selling their products.


6 posted on 12/08/2007 8:16:00 AM PST by txzman (Jer 23:29)
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To: George from New England

Taxes cost a lot more than fuel.


7 posted on 12/08/2007 8:16:23 AM PST by steve8714 (The last actor elected POTUS turned out OK.)
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To: txzman

The Walton family makes their money on rents.


8 posted on 12/08/2007 8:17:04 AM PST by steve8714 (The last actor elected POTUS turned out OK.)
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To: shrinkermd

The stores (through advertising) are trying to pull me into their stores but I am pulling back (to stay out of them).


9 posted on 12/08/2007 8:17:47 AM PST by BipolarBob (I've hired space aliens to keep the yetis out of my crop circle fields.)
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To: shrinkermd

What nonsense. What percentage of Americans have got in over their heads on mortgages? Do they make up the entire spending economy?

Could a slow down for cosmetic surgery be because the demand by that small percentage of people wanting it has been satisfied?
The initial surge has been delt with? It’s near Christmas, and people are spending on other things? Isn’t winter vacation season approaching rapidly as well?

Na, it’s because EVERYONE in America was stupid and overextended themselves.


10 posted on 12/08/2007 8:18:19 AM PST by Nathan Zachary
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To: shrinkermd

I was hoping this meant that the mall was going to be deserted when I went Christmas shopping today, but apparently only the boob job and Lasic kiosks are affected. *sigh*.


11 posted on 12/08/2007 8:20:21 AM PST by Doohickey (Giuliani: Brokeback Republican)
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To: shrinkermd

My son told me he’s going shopping with his mom and aunt. I told him he didn’t need anything else. He said that it’s for the family too. I told him they didn’t need anything else either. No luck. Out the door with mom, and my money. Doing their best to keep the economy afloat.


12 posted on 12/08/2007 8:20:23 AM PST by Enterprise (Those who "betray us" also "Betray U.S." They're called DEMOCRATS!)
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To: shrinkermd

IOW, the cost of breast implants will soon be sagging!


13 posted on 12/08/2007 8:20:29 AM PST by DCPatriot ("It aint what you don't know that kills you. It's what you know that aint so" Theodore Sturgeon))
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To: shrinkermd
The number of vision-correction surgeries appears to be falling as well. "This whole mortgage credit crisis is making people think twice," said J. Peter Rubin, a Pittsburgh plastic surgeon.

Sorry Doc. I don't know about your Boob Jobs, but maybe the 'vision-correction surgeries' are falling off because ... THEY DON'T WORK as advertised. An owner of a company I do business with had Three (3) Lasik (sp?) surgeries and NONE WORKED. He still needs his glasses, and not just for reading like some.

I had thought of getting it done until I saw what happened to him, I'll suffer with my stinking glasses thank you.

14 posted on 12/08/2007 8:22:30 AM PST by Condor51 (Rudy has more baggage than Samsonite. But that's okay, the NYPD carries it. /s)
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To: shrinkermd

Breast Implants are a god-given right! There ought to be a law.


15 posted on 12/08/2007 8:22:58 AM PST by Always Right
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To: shrinkermd

The best indicator of a lagging economy is a drop in RV sales. RV’s are off 8% nationwide. 10% = recession. However, I do like the boob job indicator.


16 posted on 12/08/2007 8:26:52 AM PST by mad_as_he$$ (Illegal Immigration, a Clear and Present Danger.)
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To: Condor51

10 years ago I had the older radial keratotomy procedure done by an experienced eye surgeon, one eye at a time, a week apart.

Outstanding results. Expensive, though...


17 posted on 12/08/2007 8:29:50 AM PST by Judith Anne (Thank you St. Jude for favors granted.)
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To: Always Right
"Breast Implants are a god-given right! There ought to be a law."

Some women need to have something there so that they can bitch about men oogling them and file sexual harassment complaints.

18 posted on 12/08/2007 8:30:44 AM PST by Nathan Zachary
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To: Judith Anne

What does that do? I need reading glasses all the time now, otherwise I see perfectly fine.


19 posted on 12/08/2007 8:33:33 AM PST by Nathan Zachary
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To: Nathan Zachary

You obviously are not a victim of saggy boobs.


20 posted on 12/08/2007 8:36:10 AM PST by cajungirl (no)
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