I listened to a money manager a few years back go over the boring but deadly accurate money supply charts and the delayed effected of tightening or easing, but was especially intrigued by the relationship Presidential term numbers and election years had with the financial markets. Depending on whether it’s a 00 decade or 02, the first or second term of a two term President falling on certain years, and the fact all Presidents want their recession to happen in the first year of their first term (Hillary’s not going to get it that fast so sad for her) can make investing decisions pretty straight forward. Bush’s two term Presidency in a decade beginning in 00 foretold good things cresting late this year and next, with the proverbial luck running out sometime in 09.
Get out for the recessions, where companies reduce their footprint and value. don’t ride out recessions. This one will start like all the other on the first Fed tightening. And people, just like all others will ignore it and keep partying until about the 3rd tightening and then kaboom.
We’ll have a correction here or there but China’s still got some gas in that bubble and we are going to kiss the sky sometime next year. If we could solve lithium, and put 50 nuke plants on line, and get people charging and recharging the grid, and get hybrids effective and selling, the markets could avoid a recession even after 09. I mean LCD TV’s have taken this expansion this far. Imagine what a transportation change could do. No not the one we want but if the Google guys get everyone commuting at 99 mpg and putting electricity back on the grid at the end of the day, who knows. It pays to be positive some times.