“Pat leaves out the possibility of a Huck win in Iowa, a Romney win in New Hampshire, a Thompson win in S. Carolina and a Guilianni win in Florida. Heading us towards a decision at the convention . . .”
He didn’t leave it out, he says that he doesn’t think it can happen.
“If Rudy is 0-4 going into Florida, he loses Florida”
“And Huckabee? He has to win Iowa. If he does, he will be the favorite in South Carolina and for the nomination, as well.”
Certainly difficult to see Thompson winning South Carolina (where he currently polls in a statistical tie for 3rd,4th, 5th and double digits behind Huckabee) if he can’t get a bounce from Iowa.
I don’t think that a failure to win Iowa or New Hampshire kills a candidate, which is what he assumes by writing off Guilianni’s chances at Florida or Thompson’s for South Carolina. Historically it hasn’t been death to not win the early primaries (the whole come back kid thing with Clinton) . . . so Buchanan’s analysis is a little rigid.