As much as I disagree with most of what Pat says he may be close here. But looking at daily Rasmussen poll numbers it still looks pretty wide open. Mitt and McCain are ahead of Rudy now.
Rasmussen poll numbers
12/20/07
13% Rudy
21% Huck
12% Fred
15% Mitt
15% John
I agree with you... I think is right. There is NO WAY that Rudy is going to be able to survive going 0-4. I can make the case that if Romney wins Iowa, it will be his to lose (he will then win NH)