Huckster won’t carry NH , but a Huckster win in Iowa will make it difficult for Romney get the momentum going that he will need.
Also watch for McPain to do well in NH , as it appears he is surging there . Romney should be very worried at this point .
You are competely discounting the South , where Thompson will be strong .
“You are competely discounting the South , where Thompson will be strong .”
Hmm. Fred is now third in SC (or practically tied with Guliani/McCain who are 4th and 5th) and fifth in FL so only a massive momentum (e.g. shock win in Iowa) could catapult him to top-2 in SC or FL. I cannot see how a seriously taken candidate can survive with 3% support in key states (NH, MI). It’s a long wait before SC and even if, say Romney or Huckabee don’t win in IA or NH they would still be ahead of Thompson.
The primary calender is different this year. A week from NH is MI and all attention will be in MI. It will be as important as SC in earlier years and coming out of MI with 3% support hardly is a way to rise in SC. Even without the loser label (after losing in IA, NH, MI), Thompson is third in SC and somebody (McCain, Romney and Huckabee or all of them) have the momentum for SC.
It is absolutely impossible to survive to SC without being in top-2 in any of IA, NH, MI.