“You said key states,which is more than just NH...”
The latest poll numbers are between 4-5% in IA, NH, MI.
These are the key states. FL and SC are later and there is no way Thompson can survive to SC until he wins Iowa (or NH). Getting third in Iowa does not help him at all. Somebody will have the momentum to MI. It may be Romney, Huckabee, or Guliani, or even McCain. They have credible chance of winning or at least finishing strong second.