I agree with you. Lieberman’s endorsement probably tilted the independents to McCain.
The Republicans in order of hardest to defeat would be, imho:
A Cheney
B- Thompson
B- Romney
C+ Hunter
C McCain
C Huckabee
F Giuliani
F Keyes
In general the open nature of NH’s primary means nothing this year. There is a hotly contested race on the Dem side. The Dems will vote in it. They will not corrupt the GOP results.