[Ingtar]

Why would Fred drop out after Iowa when all indications are that he will do no worse than third?

[Petronski]

Wishful thinking.

[tompster76]

“Why would Fred drop out after Iowa when all indications are that he will do no worse than third?”

Let’s assume that Fred gets 13% and finishes 3rd. This is hardly a “momentum”. What happens next? In NH, his poll numbers are 3.2%. Do you think he’ll does well there? He’ll be trounced. Some other guy emerges as the “winner”. Maybe somebody emerges as “strong second/challenger”.

What after NH? A week later is MI where he is polling around 5%. Somebody else has the momentum (it may be Romney, maybe Huckabee, maybe McCain..perhaps even Rudy who all have credible shot in early states). In SC, Fred is distant 3rd (and somebody else would have the momentum going there). I don’t think even Fred sees any point to continue without shock win in Iowa (maybe strong second). That way he might get into double-digits in NH and MI.

There is no way a candidate can survive NH and MI with 3% (or single-digit) numbers. Anyway, if he cannot poll better than 3rd in SC even now without Mitt/Huckabee/McCain getting momentum from early states, what’s the point.

[ejonesie22]

Third?

I am still thinking second or better.

If his poll numbers tank or at least stay the same or just rise slightly, I am even more confident...

If he polls next week in the pack I may start sweating...

[Fred]

Why? Fred should not drop out. The goal should be to suck up as many delegates as possible. There are plenty of states that divide up the delegates based on who wins the congressional district.