There are a SEVERAL MAJOR dynamics at work in Iowa that everyone is missing...
1) The Universities will be CLOSED on Election Day, so there will be no ready pool of “New, Young Voters” and volunteers for any of the campaigns to rely on...
2) This will be the FIRST Election coming DIRECTLY on the heels of large family gatherings.
How much are those “Family Arguments” at Holiday time going to influence the voters?
3) Many Iowans will be on the road, and away from home during the runup and decision phase of this campaign. How is being OUTSIDE of the Iowa Media bubble going to affect thier opinions?
4) It’s DEEP WINTER...
How will the weather affect the older, “Boomer” Democrats and Republicans abilities to get to the polls?
5) I’ve only seen ONE poll that has taken SECOND CHOICES, a critical element of the Iowa Caucus’s...
Good points. Could you add more details, especially on your #5 please?