ping!
European Union diplomats expect Kosovo to issue a declaration of independence sometime in the first two to three months of 2008. Germany, France, Italy, and Great Britain have informally agreed to recognize Kosovo’s independence. If they do that, other European countries will recognize Kosovo, followed by the U.S. and Canada. Ultimately, other former Yugoslav states like Slovenia will do so, as will Turkey. The “order of recognition” is designed to create a political fait accompli so that Serbia and Russia cannot accuse former Yugoslav republics like Croatia and Bosnia, the Balkan state of Albania, and the former colonial power, Turkey, of “dismembering Serbia.” Presumably they would first have to accuse Britain and France of dismembering Serbia. Of course the Russians could simply ignore the diplomats’ plan and say it doesn’t matter what everyone else thinks, Russia and Serbia are against Kosovar independence. Russia and Serbia would not recognize it. It is doubtful that the Russians would start a shooting war over Kosovo, but a “colder peace” throughout Europe could well be the result. In a “colder peace” situation, Russian cooperation on other European economic and security projects would either be impossible or very difficult to obtain. At worst, it might trigger a resumption of the Cold War, with Serbia becoming a client state of the new Russian empire.
December 22, 2007: Russia would only permit European Union peacekeepers in Kosovo if Serbia and the UN Security Council permitted them. What this means in diplomatic terms is not clear – Serbia is against an EU force. Russia has a UN Security Council veto, and is likely the only Security Council member who would veto an EU peacekeeping contingent.
December 19, 2007: The separatist statelet, Transdniester, will try to become a sovereign nation and member of the UN, if Kosovo becomes independent. Transdniester is a predominantly Russian region of Moldova.
We are wrong on this one—what we have done to Serbia is despicable. Creating another Muslim state in the heart of Europe (alongside Bosnia and Albania) serves our interests not at all. His rhetoric aside, I really don’t understand what is going on inside GWB’s head.
Unfortunately, the two CFR “experts” seem to be arguing as to giving the Albanian terrorists the whole loaf or only three quarters of the loaf!