Posted on 12/26/2007 6:21:32 PM PST by MitchellC
Huckabee’s support will likely crater in Iowa.
But here’s the fun part–no one will see it coming. Because of the holidays, there will be scant polling between now and the caucuses, and what polling there is will be of dubious reliability . . . we won’t know it until the results from the caucuses are in. If Huckabee declines to a distant second or perhaps even third place as I am now fearlessly predicting he will, it will catch the voting public by surprise. When they tuned this race out before the long Christmas weekend, the media told them Huckabee was a sure thing in Iowa.
Huckabee is this year’s Howard Dean. There is a reason that Iowa and New Hampshire host the two earliest quadrennial events . . . they have often demonstrated a keen ability to move past the national media hype and determine which candidates really are of presidential timbre.
Mike Huckabee is not. Late next week he will have his scream. And Iowa, as it did four years ago on the Democratic side, will once again perform well its mission of removing from the race a pretender.
Read the whole thing, including this hopeful prediction:
Huckabee’s support will have to go somewhere. The logical recipients are Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. While Iowans may not love Romney, they do respect him. Unlike Huckabee, he has impressed them as being of presidential timbre. And Thompson, at last, is running well in Iowa. He’s surging.
A stunning second place finish will get Thompson a moment in the spotlight. If he uses it well, he could emerge as the anti-Romney and make things interesting with a win in South Carolina.
(ht:GR)
Ron Paul will have zero effect on the general election if he decides to run as a third-party candidate. He and his supporters would provide some good laughs, however.
You may have a point in the sense that Paul’s support may be in large part folks who would otherwise not vote at all.
Support from Hillary.
“I believe you are wrong. Ton’s of Democrats and Independents are going to vote for Mayor Giuliani. Especially, in Califonia, New York, New Jersey.”
You might believe many independents will vote for Guliani, but I don’t think many, if any, will.
I see no way Guiliani can win the general election unless there is a lefty spoiler, and he will probably lose then.
Many GOP will not vote for him for any reason. That means he loses a large group of the GOP voters. I don’t think the Independents will vote for him and no Dem will cross the line and vote for him in the general election. The GOP will lose if he is nominated.
But vote for whoever you like.
The futures market is not infallible, but as far as I am aware, it has never been that far off this close to an election. And it's by far been a better predictor of election outcomes than any poll.
I think it can be said with a reasonable amount of confidence that Huckabee will win Iowa. The question is how close will Romney come. If he doesn't get clobbered in Iowa, and he eeks out a win in New Hampshire, he still has a good chance.
Right now, Romney needs to be more worried about McCain in New Hampshire than Huckabee in Iowa. The futures market has McCain and Romney in a dead heat in New Hampshire (both their contracts are trading around 44).
According to the futures prices, Romney is the only hope to beat Giuliani for the nomination. Giuliani's GOP nomintaion futures contract is trading at around 28. Romney's is trading at around 24; he's well within striking distance. No one else is above 20. Seems to me Romney is the only hope for conservatives.
And as far as Thompson goes, well, the guy's futures contract is trading between 3-4. Nothing more needs to be said.
How can you possibly say with a straight face that a man whose futures contract is trading at $4, and is stuck around 3% in the polls, could possibly be viable?
As to Romney, he's always been a fiscal conservative.
As to social issues, had a recent conversion on abortion it's true. He wasn't as outspoken about gay marriage before the Massachusetts Courts imposed it on the state, but come on, you've got to give the guy some credit for doing everything in his power to fight it.
Wonder if he will give an updated version of the DEAN SCREAM when he loses the Iowa Caucuses next month.
Romney has hardly been a fiscal conservative. Earlier this year, I questioned him here in Iowa about making the Bush tax cuts permanent. He declined to answer, saying something about cutting the deficit. That is, raising taxes to cut the deficit.(!) Recently, I have seen Romney ads where he now says supports making the tax cuts permanent. I guess if you wait long enough, Mitt will be on both sides on everything.
Is Iowa proportional on the delegates, i.e. if these various candidates all more or less tied, would that mean they would get an equal number of GOP convention delegates?
The precinct caucus is just the first step to the county convention, district convention, and state convention where the delegates are actually selected.
Knowing Iowa well, I have a question, iowamark...wasnt there a voter dispute in the past GOP Presidential campaign there, I think it it was in 1988? Buchanan and Dornan supporters were denied by the IOWA party entrance to the tabulation center, but Dole and somebody else’s (top tier?) guys were let in as observers....
Go FRED! (Huge donation drive going on at the Fred website right now - see if you all can help!)
I’ve found my new desktop background! Fred’s the best looking realistic man running! (Sorry, Mitt and Edwards...)
I don’t remember that offhand. If it involved Buchanan and Dornan, it would have been 1996.
There was a dispute in 1980, when Bush41 allegedly narrowly defeated Reagan. The Reagan people claimed rural counties were left uncounted.
Thanks. I believe you are right about the year, then, 1996.
A tempting Photoshop collage, especially with Obama, considering barechesting photos of he and Putin are on the net.
Huckabee has surged because he won a couple of debates and he’s got evangelical support. If a quick rise can happen to the liberal pro-life evangelical Huckster, it can happen to the conservative pro-life evangelical Hunter.
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According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
In this poll Hunter is up 3% and even with Paul and Thompson.
http://www.wxyz.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=3481ef60-8195-46a9-af04-b87b907bcfdd
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