Interview: Alarm Subsiding in Israel on Intelligence Estimate on Iran

New York Times ^ | December 10, 2007 | GERALD M. STEINBERG AND BERNARD GWERTZMAN

[america4vr]

Gerald M. Steinberg, an Israeli-American national security expert, says the initial Israeli alarm has eased over whether the latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) would soften U.S. posture toward Iran. The estimate said Iran dropped its nuclear weapons program in 2003, but Steinberg notes experts have increasingly focused on Iran’s continuing enrichment of uranium, which can lead to nuclear weapons. “The initial reaction was that this was designed to lead to a situation in which the Bush administration would be unable to threaten or to take military action against Iran,” says Steinberg. But now, he says, there’s a sense “the report may not change the direction of American policy.”

Last week, the United States intelligence agencies issued a National Intelligence Estimate on Iran which surprised most people because it contradicted one from two years ago that said Iran was working on a nuclear weapon. The new NIE said that since 2003 Iran had stopped work on that military program for nuclear weapons, but was still continuing its enrichment program on uranium, from which of course you can make nuclear weapons eventually. What is the reaction in Israel?

The initial reaction was that this was designed to lead to a situation in which the Bush administration would be unable to threaten or to take military action against Iran. The concern was that by the time a new administration was in place Iran would have enough enriched uranium to make nuclear weapons.

You saw this across the Israeli media, and this was to a large degree reflected in public statements by politicians and others—that this would leave Israel alone to have to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat.

Since the report came out, I think there has been re-thinking, with a number of people, including Defense Secretary Robert Gates,

[america4vr]

I hadn't seen this article until now, dated December 10, but it is good news. Essentially no one believes the NIE report has any validity in that no one believes Iran has in any way abandoned its desire to acquire nuclear weapons.

The only good thing to come out of this debacle is that the NIE has managed to marginalize itself into insignificance and consequently never to be heard from ever again as an authority on anything.

[nuconvert]

“But now, he says, there’s a sense “the report may not change the direction of American policy.” “

Not as long as Bush is President.
Who knows what the policy will be after that

[Hans]

Thank God, for GW Bush.