He waited and waited to declare his candidacy. He apparently believed that poll numbers would determine the victors in the primaries. Historically that has never been the case in contested primary elections for president. It will not be the case in this years primaries either.
The turnouts in primary elections are quite small compared to general elections. Usually in the neighborhood of about half the voters. In many primaries the turn out may be as low as 25 percent or even less. It is always the case.
With low turn outs the support of the active party members becomes very important. By that I mean the people who turn out for Party meetings and volunteer to go door to door and man phone banks in every election. Most party officials and experienced volunteers are active because it gives them access, influence and sometimes jobs in the administration of a successful candidate. And the sooner they get on a successful candidates bandwagon the more influence they possess.
Thus Fred took a look at Iowa and New Hampshire and decided to wait .. to wait as long as his poll numbers were great. During that time Romney, and other candidates were lining up local professionals to become a part of their team.
By the time Fred got off his rump, all the professional and experienced party professionals were committed to other canidates. Fred dropped inthe polls as the media lost its loving touch for Fred. At that point it became obvious that Fred was a dead duck.
There are people in nearly every precinct in the battle ground states who can generate a hundred votes for the candidate they support. As a result the media and its coverage is at best a minor factor in contested primary elections if one or two candidates have the experienced volunteers on their team. The more people in the race the more important the local professionals become.
Fred obviously did not understand what it takes to win the primaries and is at best a second or third tier candidate. Fred may be right on the issuse but candidates who do not bother to learn what it takes to win primary elections are not likely to take the time to figure out how to beat Democrats at anything Democrats want to do.
Really? He has King and his organization which is arguably the king of elections there. I’d say his organization is in much better shape then say Huckabee or Guiliani. Certainly, Romney is in good shape, but I think Fred will surprise.