Posted on 12/28/2007 8:15:20 PM PST by bruinbirdman
Kenya's voters last night appeared to have swept away the elitist "old guard" of politicians, as preliminary election results showed an apparently crushing defeat for the government.
Unofficial calculations by the Kenyan media put the incumbent president, Mwai Kibaki, on 39 per cent, and the main challenger, Raila Odinga, on 58 per cent, with half of the votes counted.
Mr Kibaki's vice-president, septuagenarian Moody Awori, three sons of former president Daniel arap Moi and 10 cabinet ministers lost their parliamentary contests as results trickled in from 27,000 polling stations.
Another loser was Nicholas Biwott, the former president's right-hand man and a key figure in Kenya's largest corruption case.
"Everybody is celebrating, it is such a gust of fresh air," said David Okoth, 31, a computer hardware importer from Nairobi.
"Kenyan voters know that these are the guys who were part of the rot which has been in government for too long.
"The voters have matured. They have delivered a slap in the face to those Kenyan politicians who assumed they could direct the thinking of the people to stay in power for life."
However, violent scuffles broke out as delays to vote counts left Kenyans still unclear who had won.
Police fired guns in the air and used tear gas to separate rival supporters at several tallying centres as the opposition cried foul over hold-ups to the result.
The Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) faced stiff criticism after it could declare just 28 of 210 constituencies by 5pm local time, with Mr Kibaki leading 693,195 votes to 517,800.
So is this a move toward sanity (away from socialism), toward insanity (toward socialism), or just a house cleaning without left/right aspects?
Long story made short: Kibaki, the incumbent and the re-elected president, was actually expected to win by a slight margin. In fact, if you check out the most recent Fortune Magazine (Investor's Guide 2008 Special Issue on display until January 14, 2008) it had Kenya's 'risk profile' decreasing, and the reason given was as follows:
'Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki will win reelection by a narrow margin, which will help maintain political stability and pro-market economic policies in East Africa's most promising frontier market.'
That was because under Kibaki's rule over the last 5 years, Kenya went from negative GDP growth to a GDP growth of around 6% (over the last year it was closer to 7%). And this is in a country with no oil, no real mineral wealth, and which was not even receiving foreign aid (the freezing of foreign aid by the foreign governments was actually a major blessing in disguise, since it forced Kenya to pull up its socks, which helped out). To make a long story short, Kenya moved from a typical African basket-case into something that was tantamount to a light shining in a really dark continent.
His opponent, Mr. Raila Odinga, was the son of one of Kenya's post-independence greats. He belongs to the Luo tribe (one of the large tribes), while Kibaki belongs to the Kikuyu tribe (Kenya's largest tribe). Let's just say that the two tribes do not particularly like each other (although my personal reason for that is in the same way that two Alpha male Wolves will not like each other .....in their differences they are the same thing). Raila was the main opposition to Kibaki, and led the ODM party (Orange Democratic Party .....I wonder where they got the name 'Orange' from ....hint hint, think about the Orange movement in Eastern Europe).
Raila is not the favorite of the business community in Kenya primarily due to his tendency to make off the cuff statements that lead to needless volatility (once he told people in an area that they did not need to pay rent any more, causing significant friction; and some months back he was saying that Kenya's stock exchange was fueled by drug money - it is actually fueled by common men and women investing mostly small amounts - or that if he came into power he would roll back on the privatization of State parastatals and bring them back to the state).
Apart from those statements, Raila himself is a very successful businessman (needless to say, both Kibaki and Raila are VERY rich men). Raila had the support of the 'common man,' and the Luo community and a good part of the Luhya community (another large tribe). He also had the support of the Muslim community after signing a secret Memorandum of Understanding with them (that caused a lot of controversy, with all sorts of allegations coming out from both sides. He was accused of agreeing to turn the Muslim areas in Shariah territory, but he claims that was a lie from his opponent. The truth is hard to say, with all versions of the secret MOU coming out). Kibaki had the support of the business community, the Kikuyu (and related tribe) communities, and some others. The other tribes were divided into various groups (there are 43 tribes in Kenya, with many of them quite small and having to be in groupings to have any political weight). A third major contender, Mr. Kalonzo Musyoka (a very civil chap who I hope will one day be president) had the support of a certain tribe (the Kamba), but during the elections it seems as if a lot of his support went to the other two (since this time round he did not have a real chance of winning, and thus voting for him would be 'throwing' your vote away.
Think of it as choosing between voting for the Republican Party, the Democrat party, or one of the other smaller 'third' parties. Voting for the third party would be throwing away your vote, so you may end up holding your nose and voting for either Dem or Repub even if they do not TOTALLY adhere to your principles. Same thing here when it came to Mr. Kalonzo Musyoka.
Then comes these elections ....the elections went quite well, and the voter turnout was amazing. The only people I know who did not vote was me and a rather fabulous lady that I know (my excuse is that I'd just come from the US and did not have a voter's card). People I know were lining up at 4.30 am, hours before the election opened. Thus the turnout was large, people were enthusiastic, and everything seemed perfect.
Then the results started streaming in. That is where the trouble started.
There were immediate reports of 'irregularities' in certain areas. ODM (Raila's party) would claim that PNU (Kibaki's party) was rigging some areas (always areas where PNU defeated ODM), and PNU also started saying that there was rigging against them. The problem is some ODM people would go and raid the polling centers during counting claiming that there was rigging going on, and then disrupt the place (and in one case even throw the ballot boxes outside and burn the ballot papers), in essence making it questionable whether there was any rigging at all or they were just displeased with results (and a hanging chad is FAR better evidence than burnt ballot papers, which makes one wonder). Thus at first it was ODM that was causing a lot of chaos (whether or not they were right about rigging, acting like a Baboon and causing chaos is not a prudent way of handling things! They should have learned that from the Palestinians a long time ago on how violence just makes people take you for a nonsensical fool).
Then afterward it started to look like it was PNU rigging. Certain areas would have 115% turnout (hey ...maybe all those Mexicans that 'magically' vote for the Dems managed to tunnel their way to Kenya), or a figure of 30,000 votes would suddenly become 80,000. So on and so forth.
That is when the real chaos started.
ODM called several press briefings, where they said that they did not agree with the results and that it was not fair. Which is alright with me .....they have the right to call out when things do not smell right, and they did not smell right at all. The problem started coming up when Raila Odinga started making some veiled threats on violence, telling his supporters not to react angrily but at the same time saying that if the results were not 'fair' (although I think the only way he would have accepted them as fair is if he won, any other outcome would have been 'unfair' to him) then Kenya risked heading into chaos (he mentioned Cote D Vore and how it had gone into chaos, and one of his teammates - Anyang Nyongo - used the term 'war'). He told his people to resist violence until the Electoral Commission released the results. As I said, there were real issues he brought up (some centers were fishy to say the least), but the main problem I had with his statements were the veiled threats. A country is greater than one individual, and it is not worth throwing a country into chaos even if the cause is a stolen election.
Take the US: Even if the Democrats CLAIMED that the 2000 election was stolen, at least their sour grapes (which is what that was) only led to Gore putting on a few pounds and going on an environmental (LOL ...is it even that) crusade. You did not see Gore basically hinting at violence, and if a Dem is bright enough to do that then I hoped someone like Raila would be brighter (although what can one expect from someone who named his son Fidel).
Now, Kibaki was ruled the winner (by over 200,000 votes ......although in my opinion many of those votes are VERY fishy), Raila and his group refused to accept the results, chaos has broken out in some parts of the country, and just before the news channels followed a Government decree saying that they should not broadcast live news (according to them, so as not to cause undue chaos ....erm ....cough) Raila was talking about having a parallel Government (in my opinion very stupid, and playing right into the hands of the Government since by causing chaos he gives the Government a free reign to crack down on his supporters ....although at this point they should be called rioters).
Funny thing about rioters ....just like after Katrina, they always seem more interested in looting the weirdest things. In N'Orleans you had the famous pic of the black dude with a crate of Bud, in Kenya there was this guy with a whole bl""dy FRIDGE on his shoulder ....the guy must be related to Thor or the Hulk or something (maybe some Kryptonian genes in him). Typical 'stupido' stuff ....looting, rioting, burning some cars (guess the Islamic 'youth' in France do not have a patent on the burning of cars).
Anyways, that is how things are as of right now. A major police crackdown, the possibility of some violence for the next 2 days, and then calm. but over those 2 days some innocent people will get beat the cr"p up (and even killed), all for nothing.
My feelings. Of Raila and Kibaki, Kibaki was by far the better man. Far less volatile, has one of the best track records in Africa (going from negative GDP to a whisker under 7% is major ....now Angola has a far higher GDP, their's is 24%, but that is due to oil and its selling to China. Any country without excessive natural resources that manages to have a 6.5% GDP rate is doing very well). HOWEVER, with that said ...if the election was flawed the election was flawed. The people deserve whatever Government they elect (whether that Government is a cr"ppy one or not), and if they wanted Raila then they should have had him (similar case with South Africa and Zuma ....a baboon also, but if people want him .....). Thus I am a little torn here ....I am pro Kibaki (that is, if i was voting), but that doesn't mean that I support rigging (if it was rigging, and it is looking like it is).
With that said, Raila is also a baboon (I've used that word several times now, huh). Starting violence will only lead to a violent crackdown. I now hear that in some areas Luos (Raila's tribe) is pulling Kikuyus (Kibaki's tribe) out of their houses and robbing them. Right now it is 10.59pm in Kenya. That news will have spread to the rest of the country by tomorrow morning, and Kikuyus will not stand by while their tribesmen are robbed (according to one person I talked to today who is Kikuyu, he said that 'luos are not the only people who can go out and cause violence'). I am certain the Government will bring out the military, and with the world concentrating on Pakistan they can easily afford to use excessive force.
Anyways, in 2 days everything will be alright. It is just a little sad. It is sad that Kibaki's team may have 'spiced' up some results (have to add ...alleged ....just in case there is a sniffer program on this computer), and it is also sad that Raila does not have the intelligence to bring his people under control. Especially when the entire country is basically split 51%-49% between the two (now, the bone of contention is who has 51% and who has 49% ....but that is moot since both basically have half the country supporting each of them).
Dumb. On all sides. Hope it is a quick 2 days.
Spetz!
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