Iowa Caucus Presidential Preferences

American Research Group ^ | 12/29/07

[wastedpotential]

My larger point is - they don’t know how it will turn out. My guess is that the final vote will not look like any of the polls taken. It is difficult to measure the passion of voters which will translate into actual votes cast.

[JohnnyZ]

ARG is trash.

Their results this year, and in previous years, have been laughable.

[JohnnyZ]

The Research2000 poll done at the same time as the ARG poll shows Huckabee with a 7 point lead.

Research2000 - Huckabee +7 - good reputation
ARG - Romney +9 - worst pollster in the US

Believe what you want :)

[American Quilter]

I’ll rally to Mitt when he wins it like you’ve never seen before. But deep down inside, I’ll be wishing it was the Tennessee gentleman.

Same here.

[American Quilter]

Huckabee should apologize for say that Clinton should not have been impeached.

WHAT? Well, if I'd had any thoughts of voting for Huckabee, that would have killed them. No serious Republican candidate would say that.

[dvwjr]

Originally posted by: JohnnyZ

"ARG is trash."

"Their results this year, and in previous years, have been laughable."

You may be on to something...

Here is some comparison data for polling done by various organizations. Feel free to look at the Bush and Kerry actual results (popular vote data only) which have the blue and pink colors to see how 'accurate' the polling done by the listed organization turned out to be...

The final non-electoral 'popular' vote results were:

Bush  - 50.73%
Kerry - 48.27%
Nader - 00.38%
Other - 00.62%

You might note that the American Research Group (ARG) did not have such a good prediction record in 2004. Do you trust them now?

You can ignore the dark blue, red and green breakdowns of the chart which represent Republicans, Democrats and Independents. That data was to track election day breakdowns against the previous years' polling breakdowns.

Presidential Polling Data
Nine Media Polling Organizations
Year 2004
vs
Actual Election Results

dvwjr			Revision Date:
			3/2/2006
United States Presidential Election 2004		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
122,293,548 Actual Voters
		NEP Calculated (MoE ±0.85%)				Actual Election Results
November 2, 2004		37.15%	37.34%	25.51%	13,067 V	50.73%	48.27%	0.38%	0.62%
2004 NEP Exit Data - Voted for:	Bush	93.09%	10.51%	48.49%
2004 NEP Exit Data - Voted for:	Kerry	6.46%	89.04%	49.49%
2004 NEP Exit Data - Voted for:	Nader	0.00%	0.00%	1.49%
2004 NEP Exit Data - Voted for:	Other	0.45%	0.45%	0.53%
	Total	100%	100%	100%
ABCNews/Washington Post Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Neither	Wont vote	No opinion
All polls Registered or Likely Voters
June 17-20, 2004	100.0%	29.8%	37.5%	32.7%	1,015 RV	43.74%	48.47%	5.81%	0.30%	0.69%	0.39%	0.59%
July 22-25, 2004	100.0%	33.1%	34.4%	32.5%	974 RV	47.51%	46.49%	2.52%	0.18%	1.49%	0.49%	1.32%
July 30- August 1, 2004	100.0%	28.6%	38.7%	32.7%	940 RV	44.26%	49.57%	2.13%	0.32%	1.28%	0.53%	1.91%
August 26-29, 2004	100.0%	32.9%	31.7%	35.3%	945 RV	48.47%	46.77%	1.59%	0.11%	0.95%	0.42%	1.69%
September 6-8, 2004	100.0%	35.2%	30.5%	34.3%	952 RV	50.21%	43.59%	2.00%	0.42%	1.79%	0.32%	1.68%
September 23-26, 2004	100.0%	33.0%	35.6%	31.4%	969 RV	50.57%	43.55%	1.96%	0.72%	0.93%	0.41%	1.86%
October 1-3, 2004	100.0%	36.3%	31.9%	31.8%	1,169 LV	51.25%	46.18%	0.59%	0.24%	0.67%	0.33%	0.73%
Switch to daily tracking poll
ARG Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All polls Registered Voters
July 1-3, 2004	100.0%	35.2%	38.8%	26.0%	773 RV	44.24%	47.35%	2.59%	5.82%
July 30-August 1, 2004	100.0%	35.1%	37.1%	27.8%	776 RV	44.97%	48.58%	2.06%	4.38%
August 30-September 1, 2004	100.0%	34.6%	37.1%	28.3%	1,014 RV	44.67%	45.96%	2.96%	6.41%
October 2-3, 2004	100.0%	34.8%	37.9%	27.3%	1,005 RV	43.88%	47.26%	2.09%	6.77%
Final - October 28-30, 2004	100.0%	35.3%	39.6%	25.1%	1,500 RV	47.60%	48.27%	1.20%	2.93%
CBS News Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Wont Vote	Depends	Do not know
All polls Registered or Likely Voters
May 20-23, 2004	100.0%	29.0%	34.0%	37.0%	883 RV	40.54%	46.55%	5.21%	0.68%	1.59%	0.57%	4.87%
July 11-15, 2004	100.0%	27.3%	34.2%	38.5%	789 RV	41.57%	45.25%	5.20%	0.38%	1.27%	1.52%	4.82%
July 30 - August 1, 2004	100.0%	35.3%	37.5%	27.1%	837 RV	42.51%	48.39%	2.99%	0.01%	0.37%	1.19%	4.54%
August 15-18, 20004	100.0%	36.4%	39.6%	24.0%	792 RV	45.08%	46.46%	1.01%	0.13%	0.63%	1.01%	5.68%
September 6-8, 2004	100.0%	34.4%	37.7%	27.9%	889 RV	48.71%	42.41%	1.35%	0.34%	0.67%	1.01%	5.51%
September 12-16, 2004	100.0%	38.8%	33.2%	28.0%	1,048 RV	49.90%	40.55%	2.96%	0.38%	1.15%	1.05%	4.01%
September 20-22, 2004	100.0%	36.0%	37.0%	27.1%	898 RV	49.44%	41.31%	2.23%	0.33%	1.34%	1.00%	4.34%
October 1-3, 2004	100.0%	31.8%	35.8%	32.3%	773 RV	47.22%	46.96%	1.55%	0.00%	0.52%	0.65%	3.10%
October 9-11, 2004	100.0%	32.7%	34.2%	33.1%	933 RV	48.00%	45.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%
October 9-11, 2004	100.0%	39.0%	41.1%	19.9%	693 LV	47.62%	45.45%	1.59%	0.14%	0.72%	1.01%	3.46%
October 14-17, 2004	100.0%	32.5%	35.4%	32.1%	851 RV	45.00%	45.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%
October 14-17, 2004	100.0%	38.4%	41.2%	20.4%	565 LV	47.43%	45.31%	2.12%	0.00%	0.88%	0.53%	3.72%
Final - October 28-30, 2004	100.0%	33.2%	33.3%	33.6%	824 RV	49.00%	46.00%	1.00%	1.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.00%
FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Wont Vote
All polls Registered or Likely Voters
July 20-21, 2004	100.0%	33.6%	38.6%	27.9%	900 RV	43.00%	42.44%	3.56%	10.44%	0.56%
August 3-4, 2004	100.0%	33.9%	38.0%	28.1%	900 RV	42.00%	46.00%	2.44%	8.89%	0.67%
August 24-25, 2004	100.0%	33.8%	36.2%	30.0%	1,000 LV	42.51%	43.83%	3.68%	9.51%	0.46%
September 7-8, 2004	100.0%	33.9%	37.5%	28.6%	1,000 LV	46.60%	42.80%	2.90%	7.30%	0.40%
September 21-22, 2004	100.0%	35.0%	37.7%	27.3%	1,000 LV	45.60%	41.80%	1.30%	11.10%	0.20%
October 3-4, 2004	100.0%	31.5%	39.6%	28.9%	1,000 LV	47.49%	45.00%	1.49%	5.51%	0.51%
October 17-18, 2004	100.0%	35.8%	36.6%	27.6%	1,000 LV	49.00%	42.00%	2.40%	6.60%	0.00%
October 27-28, 2004	100.0%	37.4%	35.1%	27.5%	1,200 LV	49.75%	44.75%	0.42%	5.08%	0.00%
Tracking - October 28-29, 2004	100.0%	34.8%	38.1%	27.2%	1,200 LV	47.42%	45.33%	0.58%	6.67%	0.00%
Tracking - October 29-30, 2004	100.0%	36.7%	36.3%	26.9%	1,200 LV	46.00%	46.25%	1.17%	6.58%	0.00%
Gallup Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All polls Registered Voters
May 7-9, 2004	100.0%	32.2%	34.1%	33.8%	877 RV	41.39%	46.41%	7.41%	4.79%
May 21-23, 2004	100.0%	34.8%	37.3%	28.0%	883 RV	44.05%	46.43%	5.55%	3.96%
June 3-6, 2004	100.0%	35.5%	37.7%	26.8%	896 RV	42.41%	45.42%	7.37%	4.80%
June 21-23, 2004	100.0%	34.1%	37.6%	28.2%	882 RV	44.90%	46.49%	5.56%	3.06%
July 8-11, 2004	100.0%	36.7%	37.4%	25.9%	891 RV	42.20%	49.61%	3.82%	4.38%
July 19-21, 2004	100.0%	40.5%	36.3%	23.1%	878 RV	43.39%	47.38%	4.90%	4.33%
July 30-August 1, 2004	100.0%	39.2%	38.3%	22.5%	916 RV	48.14%	46.94%	2.40%	2.51%
August 9-11, 2004	100.0%	38.6%	36.5%	25.0%	897 RV	45.71%	45.04%	5.13%	4.12%
August 23-25, 2004	100.0%	37.6%	33.9%	28.5%	876 RV	46.35%	46.23%	3.65%	3.77%
September 3-5, 2004	100.0%	38.2%	35.5%	26.2%	926 RV	48.49%	45.79%	3.56%	2.16%
September 13-15, 2004	100.0%	38.8%	33.0%	28.1%	935 RV	50.00%	42.00%	4.00%	4.00%
September 24-26, 2004	100.0%	39.8%	32.2%	28.0%	926 RV	52.59%	42.44%	3.13%	1.84%
October 1-3, 2004	100.0%	36.9%	36.6%	26.4%	934 RV	48.61%	47.43%	1.39%	2.57%
October 9-10, 2004	100.0%	36.5%	35.3%	28.3%	941 RV	47.61%	47.72%	1.38%	3.29%
October 14-16, 2004	100.0%	36.9%	34.7%	28.3%	942 RV	48.62%	46.07%	1.38%	3.93%
October 22-24, 2004	100.0%	36.2%	35.5%	28.3%	1,461 RV	49.14%	46.61%	0.96%	3.29%
Final - October 29-31, 2004	100.0%	34.6%	37.1%	28.3%	1,866 RV	46.14%	48.45%	0.80%	4.61%
Los Angeles Times Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other/UDec	Dont Know
All polls Registered or Likely Voters
June 5-8, 2004	100.0%	25.9%	38.0%	36.1%	1,230 RV	42.49%	48.35%	4.14%	0.51%	4.51%
July 17-21, 2004	100.0%	31.7%	40.9%	27.3%	1,529 RV	43.56%	46.37%	3.07%	0.39%	6.61%
August 21-24, 2004	100.0%	32.0%	41.0%	27.0%	1,352 RV	46.60%	44.08%	3.40%	0.59%	5.33%
September 25-28, 2004	100.0%	36.5%	35.8%	27.6%	1,100 LV	50.55%	45.09%	2.36%	0.00%	2.00%
Final - October 21-24, 2004	100.0%	33.3%	38.9%	27.8%	881 LV	48.47%	48.24%	0.68%	0.00%	2.61%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Depends	None/Other	Not Sure
All polls Registered Voters
June 25-28, 2004	100.0%	38.0%	40.0%	22.0%	1,025 RV	45.00%	44.00%	4.00%	1.00%	1.00%	5.00%
July 19-21, 2004	100.0%	39.0%	40.0%	21.0%	813 RV	47.00%	45.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	5.00%
August 23-25, 2004	100.0%	39.0%	38.0%	23.0%	806 RV	47.00%	45.00%	3.00%	0.00%	1.00%	4.00%
September 17-19, 2004	100.0%	39.0%	40.0%	21.0%	1,006 RV	48.00%	45.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	4.00%
October 16-18, 2004	100.0%	37.0%	41.0%	22.0%	1,004 RV	48.00%	46.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	3.00%
Final - October 29-31, 2004	100.0%	37.0%	38.0%	25.0%	1,014 LV	48.00%	47.00%	1.00%	0.00%	2.00%	2.00%
Note: All R/D/I numbers published by NBC/WSJ
Newsweek/PSRAI Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All polls Registered Voters
March 18-19, 2004	100.0%	35.9%	35.1%	29.0%	838 RV	45.47%	43.44%	5.49%	5.61%
May 13-14, 2004	100.0%	32.2%	36.9%	30.9%	832 RV	42.31%	43.27%	5.41%	9.01%
July 8-9, 2004	100.0%	34.4%	35.6%	30.0%	1,001 RV	44.36%	47.35%	2.70%	5.59%
July 29-30, 2004	100.0%	29.0%	38.5%	32.5%	1,010 RV	41.78%	49.41%	3.07%	5.74%
September 2-3, 2004	100.0%	35.8%	31.5%	32.6%	1,008 RV	52.38%	40.58%	3.37%	3.67%
September 9-10, 2004	100.0%	38.0%	31.4%	30.6%	1,003 RV	49.45%	42.67%	2.19%	5.68%
September 30 - October 2, 2004	100.0%	33.3%	36.9%	29.8%	1,013 RV	45.01%	46.59%	1.97%	6.42%
October 14-15, 2004	100.0%	36.2%	34.2%	29.7%	1,004 RV	48.31%	46.02%	1.10%	4.58%
October 21-22, 2004	100.0%	35.4%	35.2%	29.5%	1,008 RV	46.15%	46.49%	1.85%	5.51%
Final - October 27-29, 2004	100.0%	34.0%	36.2%	29.8%	1,005 RV	47.86%	44.48%	1.49%	6.17%
Time/SRBI Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Do not know	Refused
All polls Registered and/or Likely Voters
July 20-22, 2004	100.0%	33.0%	35.0%	32.0%	1,059 RV	43.00%	46.00%	5.00%	0.00%	5.00%	1.00%
August 3-5, 2004	100.0%	28.0%	36.0%	36.0%	1,001 RV	41.00%	45.00%	6.00%	1.00%	4.00%	2.00%
August 24-26, 2004	100.0%	33.0%	32.0%	35.0%	1,026 RV	46.00%	42.00%	6.00%	0.00%	5.00%	2.00%
August 31-September 2, 2004	100.0%	36.0%	32.0%	32.0%	1,128 RV	49.00%	39.00%	5.00%	0.00%	4.00%	2.00%
September 7-9, 2004	100.0%	31.0%	32.0%	37.0%	1,013 RV	50.00%	39.00%	4.00%	0.00%	5.00%	1.00%
September 21-23, 2004	100.0%	36.0%	30.0%	34.0%	1,014 RV	46.00%	42.00%	6.00%	1.00%	4.00%	2.00%
September 21-23, 2004	100.0%	36.0%	31.0%	33.0%	877 LV	48.00%	42.00%	5.00%	0.00%	3.00%	2.00%
October 6-7, 2004	100.0%	31.0%	36.0%	33.0%	1,024 RV	44.00%	43.00%	4.00%	0.00%	4.00%	3.00%
October 6-7, 2004	100.0%	32.0%	36.0%	32.0%	886 LV	45.00%	45.00%	3.00%	1.00%	3.00%	3.00%
October 14-15, 2004	100.0%	32.0%	37.0%	31.0%	1,000 RV	46.00%	46.00%	4.00%	0.00%	3.00%	1.00%
October 14-15, 2004	100.0%	35.0%	36.0%	29.0%	865 LV	48.00%	46.00%	3.00%	0.00%	3.00%	0.00%
October 19-21, 2004	100.0%	33.0%	35.0%	32.0%	1,059 RV	50.00%	43.00%	4.00%	0.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Final - October 19-21, 2004	100.0%	35.0%	35.0%	30.0%	803 LV	51.00%	46.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	0.00%
Note: All R/D/I numbers published by TIME/SRBI

Hope this helps,

dvwjr

[dvwjr]

test

[Kevmo]

Huckabee has surged because he won a couple of debates and he’s got evangelical support. If a quick rise can happen to the liberal pro-life evangelical Huckster, it can happen to the conservative pro-life evangelical Hunter.

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According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts

In this poll Hunter is up 3% and even with Paul and Thompson.
http://www.wxyz.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=3481ef60-8195-46a9-af04-b87b907bcfdd