Gen. Petraeus Positive, Cautious on Iraq Progress

BAGHDAD, Dec. 29 -- The top U.S. commander in Iraq, Gen. David H. Petraeus, delivered a positive but cautious assessment Saturday of progress in Iraq over the previous year,citing the drop-off in violence over the latter half of the year but warning that insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq remains the country's preeminent threat.

Petreaus said the number of weekly attacks in Iraq -- such as roadside bombs, mortars and sniper fire -- has fallen by about 60 percent since June, down to about 500 a week by late this month. The number of Iraqi civilians killed in December through the 22nd appeared to be about 600, according to a graph over the past two years provided by Petraeus using combined Iraqi and U.S. figures. The highest death toll during this period was last December, when about 3,000 civilians were killed.

"The positive security trends and the factors that produced them are changing the context in many parts of Iraq. While progress in many areas remains fragile, security has improved," Petraeus said during a briefing for reporters inside the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. He added that success "will emerge slowly and fitfully, with reverses as well as advances, accumulating fewer bad days and gradually more good days. There will inevitably be more tough fighting."

The downturn in violence is generally attributed to three factors that emerged over the year: the arrival of 30,000 additional U.S. soldiers, the emergence of tens of thousands of Sunni militiamen who aligned with American troops against al-Qaeda in Iraq, and the decision by Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to call for a six-month cease-fire. Petraeus also cited a drop-off in fighters coming into Iraq from Syria and Saudia Arabia, and a decline in weapons believed to be manufactured in Iran being used in recent months.

I don't know a better way to say it, but it has killed me to not say something earlier. Although the surge has been enormously successful it is not the primary reason for the turnaround, although it has been the reason for the maintenance and continued success of the turnaround.

Three major factors contributed to the turnaround in Iraq. In order of importance to the success are:

1. The Sunni Reconciliation resulting in the formation of the Concerned Citizens (CC) from former Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQIZ) affiliated insurgent organizations. The most prominent of these groups was the 1920's Revolutionary Brigade (1920s). This third largest insurgent group in Iraq is a Sunni nationalist group that sided with AQIZ since the beginning of the war to rid Iraq of American influence. Early last year leaders of this group realized that AQIZ was betraying basic tenants of their agreement, most specifically AQIZ was destroying their nation by using overwhelming numbers of Foreign Fighters, forcing marriages to Iraqi women in order to elicit local support through familial ties, and killing Iraqis indiscriminately.

Leaders of the 1920s decided to "smoke the peace pipe" with American leaders in order to form local policing and fighting groups against AQIZ. This type of reconciliation proved outrageously effective very quickly in both Al Anbar and the former Shakriyah Triangle. So, effective, in fact, that the CC spread like wildfire throughout the most dangerous regions of Iraq, improving security as well as kill/capture rates of high value targets. The most prominent and immediate effects, though, were our former enemies were no longer attacking us and they were turning in explosive munitions used to make IEDs for money. These CC groups are ongoing and consistently effective. All this was set in motion before the surge.

2. 12 MAY 2007, Qargouli Village, near Yusifiyah. This is the time and place that three 2/10 Mountain Division soldiers were ambushed and duty status and whereabouts unknown (DUSTWUN). The DUSTWUN incident happened at the very beginning of the surge. AQIZ likely had intended for the incident to have a negative media effect in the United States as well as destroy the moral of the 2/10MTN soldiers in an area where the CC were still in early organization. However, the effect was just the opposite. Troops were diverted to the search for the DUSTWUN soldiers from other Brigades, made easily possible by the early arrivals for the surge.

The result was 800+ local nationals being arrested and questioned, over and over again. Eventually, the locals got pissed at being arrested for something AQIZ had done. Local sheiks decided to take things into their own hands and began ordering all Iraqis in their villages to runoff or kill AQIZ members on sight. AQIZ within the communities were turned into US forces, renounced AQIZ in order to maintain blood ties, or turned themselves in at the behest of their sheiks. This led to increased security and increased presence and organization of CC in the Shakriyah triangle. Word of the success spread throughout Iraq and the same thing began happening in other areas outside of Baghdad.
These first two factors coupled with the increasing number of troops had the second and third order effects of reducing the ability of AQIZ to introduce weapons and munitions into Baghdad, as well as the capture and killing of leaders.

3.THE SURGE Which has had a huge effect due to the Counter Insurgency Operations led by Gen Petraeus. The surge has compounded and continued the successes that were starting to take shape about the time word of the surge hit the American Media.

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